2026-02-20 06:57:05

🤔 JPMorgan's Market Reaction Forecast to the US Supreme Court's Decision on Trump's Tariffs:

▫️64% Probability: Tariffs are lifted and immediately replaced with similar ones → S&P 500 initially rises by 0.75-1%, but then pulls back to +0.1-0.2%.

▫️26% Probability: Tariffs remain in place → S&P 500 declines by -0.3-0.5%.

▫️9% Probability: Tariffs are lifted after the November midterm elections → S&P 500 increases by +1.25-1.5%, Russell 2000 will perform better.

▫️1% Probability: Tariffs are lifted without replacement → S&P 500 rises by +1.5-2%, Russell 2000 will perform better.

By January, the US has collected $124b in customs duties. Even if tariffs are lifted, effective rates may remain at 2025 levels, limiting market growth. The Supreme Court's decision is expected today.
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