Are Energy Prices Going Down? What Trump's 50% Pledge Looks Like After 18 Months

During his 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump made a sweeping pledge to cut energy expenses in half within 12 months of taking office. “You will never have had energy so low as you will under a certain gentleman known as Donald J. Trump,” he declared at a North Carolina rally in August 2024. Now, with nearly 18 months into his second term and winter 2026 underway, the data tells a more complicated story about whether energy prices are actually going down as promised.

The reality emerging from government statistics reveals that energy prices have not followed the path Trump envisioned. Instead, households across America are facing mixed outcomes—some relief in certain sectors, but substantial increases in others. Here’s what the numbers show about current energy costs under the Trump administration.

The Electricity Price Paradox: Rising Costs Despite Efficiency Promises

Despite Trump’s assertion in September 2024 that energy costs were declining, the opposite has occurred in the electricity sector. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates retail electricity prices have climbed steadily since 2022 and are projected to continue rising through 2026.

The challenge becomes even clearer when examining household expenses. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), residential electricity prices jumped 6.2% over the past 12 months as of August 2025. Federal Reserve data paints an even starker picture: the average household energy bill reached $280.91 in August 2025, up from $261.57 a year earlier—a 7.4% increase.

Geographic disparities have widened considerably. Some regions face particularly sharp increases in electricity costs. Based on EIA figures, Maine, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia experienced significant residential electricity price spikes as of August 2025. Only Nevada and Rhode Island managed slight declines in power expenses, making them exceptions rather than the rule.

Several structural factors drive these increases. Artificial intelligence and data center expansion represent one major pressure point. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s late 2024 analysis found that data center energy consumption has tripled over the past decade and could double or triple again by 2028. While data centers represented just 4.4% of total U.S. electricity usage in 2023, Berkeley Lab projections suggest this could climb to 6.7% to 12% by 2028—a demand explosion that inevitably pushes residential electricity rates upward.

Natural gas dynamics compound these pressures. Natural gas prices have surged 37% compared to the previous year, a critical factor since natural gas generates approximately 40% of all U.S. electricity. This percentage equals the combined output of coal and renewable energy sources, giving gas price fluctuations outsized influence on overall electricity costs.

Aging infrastructure adds persistent upward pressure. Transmission and distribution facilities dating back to the 1960s require expensive modernization, particularly in states like California where wildfire prevention mandates demand significant safety investments. These infrastructure upgrades, while necessary, filter directly into consumer electricity bills.

Gasoline Prices: The One Bright Spot (But Still Not 50% Lower)

The petroleum market offers a somewhat different picture than electricity. According to the BLS, gasoline prices have actually declined 6% over the 12-month period ending in August 2025. The EIA reported U.S. average pump prices for gasoline in October 2025 reached approximately $3.05 per gallon, providing modest relief at the pump.

However, this relief remains far from Trump’s original pledge. A 6% decline falls dramatically short of the promised 50% reduction. While consumers may notice slightly lower fill-up costs compared to prior months, energy prices have not descended to the transformative levels campaign rhetoric suggested.

How Trump’s Own Policies May Be Pushing Energy Costs Higher

Paradoxically, Trump administration policies appear to be working against lower energy prices rather than supporting them. The administration’s recent tax restructuring eliminated key financial incentives for wind, solar, and broader renewable energy development. According to information from the White House, these cuts removed support mechanisms that previously encouraged alternative energy investment.

Policy decisions have moved beyond tax treatment to direct intervention. Following guidance from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the White House halted construction of an almost-completed Rhode Island offshore wind facility. Trump has argued publicly that wind installations are problematic for the country, citing environmental and aesthetic concerns.

The administration further directed aging coal plants to remain operational, citing electricity reliability concerns. When the Energy Department instructed a 60-year-old Michigan coal facility to continue operations, local officials immediately warned this decision would increase costs for nearby consumers—undermining rather than advancing the original affordability objective.

These policy choices create a circular dynamic: reduced renewable energy development, halted wind projects, and forced coal plant operations limit competition in the electricity market while encouraging continued reliance on natural gas. With natural gas prices elevated, the effect works directly against efforts to lower energy prices for households.

The Verdict: Energy Prices Remain Elevated, Not Reduced

Nearly 18 months into his presidency, the data indicates that energy prices have not moved toward Trump’s 50% reduction target. Electricity costs have risen substantially across most U.S. regions. Gasoline prices, while down modestly, remain nowhere near the promised savings level. Meanwhile, administration energy policies appear to be reinforcing upward cost pressures rather than alleviating them.

The trajectory of energy prices under the current administration suggests that delivering on the original campaign pledge would require significant policy shifts in renewable energy support, infrastructure modernization funding, and market dynamics—factors that extend well beyond executive control. As energy markets head further into 2026, whether energy prices will move down or continue climbing depends on forces that remain largely outside Washington’s direct influence.