Wheat Futures Struggle in Morning Quotes as Dollar Index Gains

The wheat market is displaying widespread weakness across its major trading venues this week. Strength in the dollar index, which gained $0.893, has weighed on prices across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis contracts. The morning quotes reveal a market challenged by broad-based selling pressure, with all three primary wheat futures showing notable declines at the open.

Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis: A Coordinated Decline

Chicago SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat futures experienced the steepest losses, falling 3 to 4 ¼ cents on the session, though March contracts managed to maintain a 8 ½ cent weekly advance. Open interest declined by 8,280 contracts, signaling reduced market participation. Kansas City HRW (Hard Red Winter) futures followed suit with losses of 2 to 3 cents near the close, with March holding onto a 4 cent weekly gain despite the morning weakness. Open interest slipped by 1,333 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat showed similar pressure, closing 3 to 4 cents lower while March contracts retained a 3 ¼ cent advance for the week. The synchronized weakness across these three distinct wheat varieties suggests a macro-driven selloff rather than contract-specific dynamics.

Managed Money Adjusts Positions: What the Data Signals

Commitment of Traders data from January 27 reveals shifting trader sentiment. Managed money positions showed significant covering activity in Chicago wheat, reducing their net short exposure by 15,957 contracts to 94,743 contracts. This short-covering typically indicates some stabilization after previous weakness, though the still-substantial short position suggests traders remain cautious. In Kansas City wheat, speculative traders trimmed their net short position by 2,689 contracts, bringing it down to 10,329 contracts. These adjustments point to a market where traders are cautiously repositioning rather than aggressively buying into weakness.

Export Demand Provides a Bright Spot

Despite price weakness, accumulated wheat export sales commitments stand at 21.595 million metric tons (MMT), running 18% ahead of the same week last year and tracking at 88% of USDA’s full-year forecast. This pace aligns with the historical 89% average, suggesting demand remains fundamentally healthy. Taiwan’s recent tender purchase of 106,350 MT of wheat from the U.S. further demonstrates that global buyers continue to source American wheat despite recent price movements, providing underlying support to the market narrative.

Current Wheat Futures Quotes: The Full Picture

The latest morning quotes across all three wheat complexes show the depth of current weakness:

CBOT Wheat: March 26 contracts closed at $5.38, down 3½ cents, with ongoing pressure. May 26 settled at $5.46, down 4¼ cents.

Kansas City Wheat: March 26 KCBT contracts closed at $5.44¾, down 2¼ cents. May 26 KCBT finished at $5.55, down 2¾ cents.

Minneapolis Wheat: March 26 MIAX contracts ended at $5.78¼, down 3¼ cents. May 26 MIAX closed at $5.92½, down 3 cents.

These quote levels reflect the tension between near-term technical weakness driven by dollar strength and fundamental support from robust export activity. Traders monitoring morning quotes will need to weigh whether current price levels attract new buying or invite further selling pressure in coming sessions.