SOLANA’S CONVICTION CRISIS: DEX VOLUME PLUMMETS 20% AS LONG-TERM HOLDERS EXIT NEAR $89 RESISTANCE

Solana (SOL) is facing a critical technical and fundamental crossroads as of February 16, 2026. Data reveals that weekly decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on the network has dropped by 20% a staggering $21.3 billion decline within just seven days. This drying up of liquidity coincided with a rejection at the $89 resistance level and a significant exodus of long-term holders, whose share of the supply fell by 25.5%. With a hidden bearish divergence now confirmed on the 12-hour chart, the immediate fate of Solana’s price depends on its ability to defend the vital $84 support zone to prevent a deeper slide toward $59. Liquidity Drain: DEX Volume Drops $21.3 Billion The engine behind Solana’s recent ecosystem growth is showing signs of significant fatigue. Volume Contraction: Weekly DEX trading volume plummeted from $95.6 billion (Feb 2) to $74.3 billion (Feb 9). This 20% drop reflects a sharp decline in buyer conviction and active participation across major protocols like Raydium and Jupiter.Weak Rebounds: The lack of trading activity explains why recent price bounces have failed to break through major overhead resistance. Without the “gas” of high trading volume, rallies are increasingly prone to stalling and reversing. The “Strong Hands” Exit: Long-Term Holders Liquidate Perhaps the most concerning on-chain signal is the behavior of Solana’s most committed investor cohorts. LTH Sell-Off: Holders who have owned SOL for 3 to 5 years reduced their share of the supply from 9.77% to 7.28% in just over a week. This 25.5% decline suggests that even the “strongest hands” are losing confidence in a near-term recovery.Mid-Term Retreat: Similarly, the 3-to-6-month holder cohort saw a 14.2% reduction in their positions. This synchronized exit of mid- and long-term capital creates a heavy supply overhang that is difficult for a low-volume market to absorb. Technical Roadmap: The $84 Line in the Sand Solana’s price action has turned bearish following a rejection at $89 and the confirmation of hidden momentum weakness. Hidden Bearish Divergence: On the 12-hour chart, the RSI formed a higher high while the price made a lower high. This divergence typically signals that the underlying strength of an asset is decaying even if the price appears stable, leading to the current 5.4% daily drop.The $84 Support Wall: Cost-basis heatmap data shows a concentration of 6.44 million SOL accumulated between $83 and $84. This represents a major demand wall; if it fails to hold, the next downside targets sit at $79 and eventually $59 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level).Recovery Hurdles: To invalidate the bearish outlook, SOL must reclaim $89 and achieve a confirmed 12-hour close above $91, which would open the path to a broader recovery toward $106. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a 20% drop in Solana DEX volume and the selling behavior of long-term holders are based on Dune Analytics and Glassnode data as of February 16, 2026. Technical patterns like hidden bearish divergences are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price performance. Solana remains a high-risk asset subject to extreme volatility; the 25.5% decline in long-term holder share highlights the potential for sustained downward pressure or capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Solana or digital assets.

Do you think the 20% DEX volume drop is a temporary “cooldown,” or is the long-term holder exit a sign that the SOL bull run is officially over?