Who is selling Bitcoin? Will it go up or down next? On-chain data + long and short battle, the answer is hidden here

Bitcoin has been a bit “troublesome” lately — fluctuating around key levels, sometimes breaking psychological thresholds, sometimes bouncing back slightly, making investors anxious: Even though ETFs are still attracting funds, why are there always sellers? Where is this selling pressure coming from? Will it rebound or continue to fall?
First, identify the “main sellers”
Many believe that Bitcoin’s decline is due to retail “cutting losses and fleeing,” but on-chain data shows that the real major sellers are “long-term holders” and early whales — those “veterans” who entered when Bitcoin was worth a few dollars or hundreds of dollars, are now systematically “cashing out.”
Fidelity Digital Assets expert Chris Kuiper said this isn’t “panic selling,” but more like “slow bleeding”: veteran holders are calmly transferring their chips little by little.
Glassnode’s data supports this: “Bitcoin held for over a year without movement” used to plummet during previous bull market peaks, indicating concentrated selling by long-term holders; but this time, the decline is particularly gradual, meaning they are “selling in batches,” avoiding a market crash all at once.
A prime example is early whale Owen Gunden, whose related wallets recently transferred over $1 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges — that’s no small amount, equivalent to pouring cold water directly on the market.
Who took these sell orders?
Mainly new institutional entrants and ETF buyers. While veteran holders “buy low and sell high” to cash out, institutions are “buying high” to position themselves, creating a “big turnover”: previously, Bitcoin was concentrated in a few low-cost whales, but now it’s gradually shifting to higher-cost institutions and retail investors.
This “turnover” might make the market more mature in the long run, but in the short term, it’s risky — new buyers with higher costs, if prices fall again, will be more eager to “cut losses,” potentially triggering new sell-offs.
3 reasons Bitcoin still might fall
Many institutions and analysts are pessimistic about the short-term outlook, even suggesting Bitcoin could enter a “mini bear market,” mainly due to three concerns.
Technical indicators flashing red, risk of “capitulation” selling
Analysis from 10x Research shows Bitcoin has broken below the “21-week exponential moving average (EMA)” — a key indicator, historically, once broken, it often signals a short-term downtrend.
More troubling is that recent investors (short-term holders) bought at an average price higher than the current market price, meaning they are “trapped in losses.” If these investors can’t hold out, they might “sell in panic,” leading to a “capitulation” event, which could cause prices to fall even more sharply.
The bears have also set a “life-and-death line”: as long as Bitcoin stays below $113,000, it faces significant downside risk; if it breaks below the miners’ “cost basis” of $94,000 (estimated by JPMorgan, mainly electricity and operational costs), it might bottom out — after all, miners losing money will reduce selling, providing support.
Macro and political headwinds. As a risk asset, Bitcoin fears “liquidity tightening” and “regulatory crackdowns.” Both risks are present now.
First, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook is uncertain. Markets were hoping for a rate cut in December, but recent hawkish comments from Fed officials suggest “inflation isn’t under control yet, so no rate cut.” Without a cut, market liquidity will shrink, making it hard for assets like Bitcoin to rise.
Second, political winds in the US are shifting. Democrats won recent local elections, raising concerns they might implement stricter crypto regulations — previously, the SEC often targeted crypto platforms; if policies tighten further, institutions might withdraw investments temporarily, further suppressing prices.
The “bull market dual engines” have stalled. Previously, Bitcoin’s bull run relied on “halving cycles” (reducing supply every four years to push prices higher) and “global liquidity easing” (central banks flooding markets with money). But now, both engines have “fired out.”
Renowned analyst Willy Woo said, “The halving cycle” and “liquidity cycle” are no longer synchronized, and Bitcoin has lost its “natural accelerator”; worse, Bitcoin has never experienced a severe recession like 2008 — if a recession hits, everyone will lack funds, and who will buy Bitcoin? Whether it can withstand that remains uncertain.
3 sources of confidence
Despite the clouds over the short term, the bulls are not panicking; they see this as “darkness before dawn,” mainly for three reasons.
Liquidity will “flood in”
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, believes the market’s cash shortage is temporary. After the US government shutdown ends, the Treasury will start “massive spending,” injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into the market.
Bit founder Arthur Hayes is more direct, saying the US government will issue a lot of bonds, which will ultimately require the Fed to “print money to buy bonds,” essentially “hidden QE” — when that happens, more money in the market will likely push Bitcoin higher.
Regulatory clarity is coming. For the crypto market, “uncertain regulation” is worse than “strict regulation.” The US is now pushing the “CLARITY Act,” which aims to transfer regulatory authority over mainstream digital commodities like Bitcoin to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), rather than leaving enforcement vague under the SEC.
If this bill passes (supported by both parties, expected to be enacted by late 2025), banks and brokerages will be able to confidently participate in Bitcoin activities without fear of sudden crackdowns — leading to more capital flowing in and providing a “backstop” for Bitcoin.
Long-term valuation remains low, target price $170,000. JPMorgan mentioned the $94,000 “cost basis,” but also said Bitcoin’s “theoretical fair value” should be around $170,000 — they compare Bitcoin to gold, and after considering volatility, they believe Bitcoin is still undervalued.
Moreover, bulls believe that Bitcoin’s previous bull markets followed a “four-year cycle,” but this time, it might extend to five years, with a peak possibly in Q2 2026. The current correction is actually an “opportunity to get in,” not the end of the bull run.
Will it go up or down?
In fact, both bulls and bears have valid points. The next move of Bitcoin depends on three key variables.
Short-term: Will liquidity truly be released? If the Fed cuts rates in December or the Treasury “spends money” as scheduled, improving market liquidity, Bitcoin will likely rebound, possibly breaking the $113,000 “life-and-death line.” But if liquidity doesn’t improve or the Fed remains hawkish, breaking below $94,000 is also possible.
Medium-term: Will the CLARITY Act pass? If it passes smoothly, with clearer regulation, institutions will be more willing to enter, and Bitcoin could start a new rally; if the bill stalls or regulation tightens further, the medium-term outlook will be tough.
Long-term: Will a recession occur? If a severe recession hits, everyone will lack funds, and Bitcoin could fall along with the economy; but if Bitcoin can withstand the downturn, or even be seen as a “safe haven” (like gold), its long-term position will strengthen, and prices could rise again.
For retail investors, the biggest mistake now is “following the herd” — don’t sell just because you’re bearish, and don’t go all-in when bullish. It’s best to clarify whether you’re “short-term speculating” or “long-term investing”:
Short-term traders should closely watch liquidity and key levels (113,000 and 94,000), while long-term investors can wait for a pullback to support levels and gradually build positions, not investing all their funds at once.
After all, the only “certainty” in the market now is “uncertainty” — only by managing risks can you stay calm amid Bitcoin’s volatility.