Market Counter-Repeat Attempts and Probabilities: Analysis of Cryptocurrency Investment Options in Early 2026

In early 2026, the global financial markets are facing unprecedented complexity. Plans for the New York Stock Exchange to implement a 24/7 trading platform, the scheduled listing of GENIUS tokens on April 12, and the simultaneous historic highs in physical gold and silver have introduced a series of significant events that create uncertainty in the market. Behind these phenomena lies a fundamental challenge for investors: how to maximize the probability of successful repeated trials and make optimal investment decisions amid market volatility and unpredictability.

Market Developments Amid Uncertainty: Multi-layered Signals and Opportunities

NYSE’s 24-Hour Trading System and Structural Market Changes

Market rumors suggest that the NYSE is set to launch a platform enabling 24/7 trading of U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs. This move is not merely an extension of trading hours but signifies a fundamental innovation in market structure. The removal of traditional trading time restrictions will allow global investors to adjust asset allocation strategies more flexibly, potentially ushering in a new phase of market volatility.

GENIUS Token Airdrop and Growth Trajectory of Emerging Projects

YZi Labs’ perpetual DEX trading platform, Genius, announced an official airdrop and white paper. Notably, Q1 2026 ends on April 12, when the GENIUS token is scheduled to be generated. Between now and April 12, 10 million GP are distributed weekly, with measures increasing airdrop quantities by 50% and boosting the value of each point by 50%, significantly improving rewards for early participants. This case illustrates how emerging projects can attract market attention and build optimal tokenomics through initial repeated trials.

Surge in Physical Assets and Diversification in Financial Markets

According to Jin10 Data, physical gold and silver have surged for the first time, with silver reaching a historic high of $93.69 per ounce. Gold prices increased by 2%, reaching $4,690 per ounce, setting new records. This phenomenon reflects investor caution regarding global inflation concerns and dollar fluctuations, indicating a growing trend toward diversification strategies that include both traditional assets and cryptocurrencies.

Iterative Technological Innovation: Governance Reform and Ecosystem Evolution

The Need for DAO Redesign and Vitalik’s Proposal

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin pointed out that current DAO practices in the crypto industry have deviated from their original vision, emphasizing the need to rebuild a “better DAO design.” According to Vitalik, many existing DAOs have been reduced to “treasuries controlled by token voting,” which, while formally functional, are inefficient, susceptible to manipulation, and fail to truly mitigate human political maneuvering. This suggests that multiple iterative steps are necessary before decentralized governance can reach its full potential.

Vitalik proposed that more effective DAO designs should include improvements in oracle systems, on-chain dispute arbitration, maintenance of important lists, rapid launch of short-term cooperative projects, and support for long-term initiatives. Achieving these reforms will require technological iterations across multiple domains, including privacy technologies (zero-knowledge proofs, multi-party computation), AI utilization, and communication tools.

Development of Digital Yuan Smart Contracts and Evolving Regulatory Technologies

Caixin reports that the development of smart contracts for the digital yuan supports fully Turing-complete languages like Ethereum’s Solidity. However, a key difference is that smart contracts based on the digital yuan’s account system are limited to restricted Turing completeness, with development confined within templates approved by the central bank. This approach emphasizes security and risk management, with the core challenge being the construction of standardized connection and audit mechanisms acceptable to the financial system.

Surge in Ethereum Transaction Activity and Network Optimization

Since mid-December, Ethereum’s transaction activity has increased sharply, with the seven-day moving average approaching 2.5 million transactions, reaching a historic high. Meanwhile, average Gas fees have significantly decreased to about $0.15 (around $0.04 for swap transactions), reaching the lowest level in the network’s recent history. These network improvements signal the proliferation of decentralized applications and market maturity.

Probabilistic Decision-Making in Investment: Economic Trends, Policy Changes, and Market Adjustments

Upward Revision of US Economic Growth Forecasts and Policy Uncertainty

The IMF today revised its 2026 global economic growth forecast upward from 3.1% to 3.3%, citing the resilience of the world economy despite trade protectionism led by the U.S. and high uncertainty. The IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, attributed this to rapid investments in AI sectors in North America and Asia.

Variables in Federal Reserve Chair Selection and Market Impact

Forecast markets show rapid changes regarding the Fed chair appointment. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket indicate that the probability of former Fed official Kevin Wash being appointed chair has surged to about 60%, clearly leading. This shift is believed to be triggered by White House economic advisor Kevin Hasset’s indication of remaining in his current role. With Powell’s term ending on May 15, this decision could significantly influence U.S. monetary policy.

Such continuous policy shifts underscore the importance for investors to constantly recalculate the probability of successful repeated trials. It’s essential to monitor multiple variables simultaneously—policy uncertainty, technological innovation, asset rebalancing—and adjust investment strategies gradually.

Market Corrections and Investor Psychology

Threats from Trump’s tariffs and fluctuations in Fed chair candidates are prompting deep market adjustments, requiring position cleansing from a technical, leverage, and cost-structure perspective. This correction process is inevitable and can be viewed as part of the repeated trials necessary for rational investment decision-making.

Market Maturity and Optimization of Investment Strategies

Commentators like Peter Schiff warn that if Bitcoin cannot catch up with gold’s rise, its position as digital gold may weaken, risking a crash. However, according to Artists’ research reports, crypto asset cards have become a key channel for stablecoin usage, with annualized trading volume reaching $18 billion, and Visa accounting for over 90% of transactions, indicating ongoing mainstream adoption.

These conflicting signals symbolize the complexity of the 2026 investment environment. What market participants need is not a single correct answer but an understanding of the iterative process of market trials and the ability to develop flexible strategies that accommodate multiple scenarios. For example, Magic Eden’s move to allocate 15% of revenue into the ME token ecosystem from February 1, with buyback and staking rewards, reflects feedback-driven iterative development, marking a key indicator of industry maturation.

At the intersection of global financial markets and crypto markets, maximizing the probability of successful repeated trials becomes a fundamental strategy for sustained returns. Viewing market volatility as an opportunity rather than a threat, and continuously learning and adjusting strategies, will be essential for making more accurate investment decisions in the 2026 financial environment.