The Reason Cryptocurrency Projects Have a Good Opportunity — A Window of Opportunity Visible from the Bottom of the Cycle

The crypto market has undergone a long-term correction and is now poised to enter a new phase. Four years have passed since the excessive optimism of 2021, and market sentiment has bottomed out. Now may be the “golden window” where the value of high-quality crypto projects is properly recognized.

The reason for viewing this period as an opportunity is not based on mere emotional optimism but on fundamental changes in market structure. Relaxation of regulatory environments, institutional investor participation, and the maturation of real use cases generated by the crypto economy—these factors are converging to create a new investment landscape.

The “Bottom” Created by the Gap Between Expectations and Reality

Looking at the history of the crypto market, the relationship between expectations and price movements is clear. When expectations exceed reality, prices rise; when expectations fall short, prices decline. This pendulum-like fluctuation repeats, and long-term returns often move in the opposite direction of current expectations.

In 2021, the extent to which the crypto economy exceeded expectations was shocking. DeFi projects’ market caps soared 500-fold, and eight smart contract platforms received valuations exceeding $100 billion. However, the subsequent reality was harsh.

The most emblematic indicator is the Bitcoin/gold ratio. Despite many advances, since 2021, Bitcoin’s price relative to gold has not reached new highs. In fact, it has declined. Even as the dollar systematically depreciates, the fact that Bitcoin underperforms as digital gold compared to four years ago reveals how dominated the market was by excessive expectations.

Most projects faced structural challenges during this cycle. Revenue was cyclical and dependent on asset price increases. Regulatory uncertainty hindered institutional entry. Opaque information disclosure created asymmetries. The lack of a unified valuation framework compounded these issues. As a result, most token prices plummeted, with only a few reaching the highs of 2021.

However, this pain was a necessary correction. The era of unsustainable speculation has ended, and the market is beginning to move toward rationality.

Evidence That the Crypto Economy Has Truly Awakened

The good news is that the structural issues in the market are widely recognized and improvements are underway. The previous uncertainties are gradually fading, and a new foundation is being built.

First, other than Bitcoin, crypto assets now have real use cases. Peer-to-peer permissionless platforms, digital payment methods, non-custodial exchanges, prediction markets, global collateral markets, and asset issuance platforms—these are no longer theoretical but are actively creating value and growing regardless of price fluctuations.

Second, as regulatory environments relax, the issues with the dual “equity-token” models are also being addressed. Many projects are attributing on-chain revenues to token holders, and transparency in disclosures is improving.

Third, a shared understanding has emerged in the market. Aside from value storage assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, the simple principle is that 99.9% of crypto assets need to generate cash flow. As more fundamental investors enter, this discipline will strengthen.

In fact, over time, the concept of on-chain cash flow may be understood as an equivalent liberation of “voluntary digital value storage.” An era where owning digital assets that automatically generate rewards from anywhere in the world as long as the program runs—has there been such a transformative moment in history?

Institutional Money and Corporate Entry Are Changing the Crypto Market

The network effects of networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid are expanding daily. They are supported by an ever-growing ecosystem of applications, businesses, and users.

Thanks to permissionless design and global distribution capabilities, applications on these platforms are becoming some of the fastest-growing businesses worldwide, achieving unparalleled capital efficiency. In the long run, they are likely to underpin the potential market size of “financial super apps.” Major fintech companies are already competing in this space.

It is no surprise that Wall Street and Silicon Valley giants are pushing blockchain initiatives with full force. New products are announced almost weekly, spanning tokenization, stablecoins, and all areas in between.

What is important is that these are no longer experiments but production-level products, many built on public blockchains. As regulatory transparency improves, companies and institutions are shifting focus from “Is this legal?” to “How can blockchain expand revenue, reduce costs, and unlock new business models?”

The Era of Winners and Losers Has Arrived

The future of the crypto economy may be inevitable. But it also means that your favorite coins could go to zero.

Inevitable growth will attract fiercer competition. The pressure to deliver results has never been greater, and many weaker players will be eliminated. This does not mean everything will be swallowed by winners, but only a limited number of winners will reap significant returns.

In emerging tech sectors, 90% of startups fail. More public failures may emerge in the future. But we should not lose sight of the bigger picture. Those who love crypto projects will need the ability to identify which projects can adapt to this competitive environment.

Loving It Is Not Enough—Risks Coexist with Opportunities

Looking at the zeitgeist, nothing is more suited to the present than crypto. Declining trust in institutions, unsustainable government spending, currency devaluation, retreat from globalization, and a longing for fairer systems than old ones—all accelerate the rise of crypto.

As younger generations inherit assets from older ones and software continues to permeate the world, this may be the perfect time for crypto to break free from the bubble.

However, many analysts wrongly believe that using traditional frameworks (like Gartner’s hype cycle) means the best return period has passed. The crypto economy is not a single market but a collection of multiple products and businesses on different adoption curves.

Those claiming “the era of speculation is over” are either disappointed or lack understanding of history. Speculation does not disappear; it fluctuates with emotions and the pace of innovation.

Being skeptical is rational, but cynicism is not. We are fundamentally rebuilding how currencies, finance, and economic governance work. It’s challenging but also filled with excitement and potential.

Your task is to find the best ways to leverage this emerging reality. Not endlessly complaining that everything will fail.

Because amid the fog of disillusionment and uncertainty, rare opportunities lie hidden—reserved only for those willing to bet on the dawn of a new era, not for those lamenting the end of the old.