Monday Morning Wheat Quotes Show Broad Weakness Across Three Exchanges

The wheat futures complex opened Monday morning with declines across all three major trading venues, as market sentiment shifted toward selling pressure and external factors weighed on valuations. The shift marks a continuation of the weakness that emerged late in the previous week, when strength in the dollar index mounted additional headwinds for commodity prices.

Price Declines on Dollar Strength and Market Sentiment

The weakness accelerated as the dollar index posted a $0.893 gain, which historically pressures dollar-denominated commodities and encourages international buyers to seek alternatives. Chicago SRW wheat futures experienced losses ranging from 3 to 4 ¼ cents during Monday trading, though the March contract maintained a weekly gain of 8 ½ cents despite the session’s downturn. This resilience in the March contract reflects underlying support from longer-term positioning, though open interest slipped by 8,280 contracts as some traders trimmed positions.

The weakness extended across other venues as well. Kansas City HRW futures declined 2 to 3 cents at the close, with March holdings onto a 4 cent weekly advance. Open interest in KC wheat declined by 1,333 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat closed with 3 to 4 cent losses, even as the March contract posted a 3 ¼ cent gain on the week, indicating that weekly strength could not overcome Monday morning’s selling.

Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis Futures Post Lower Monday Morning Quotes

Monday morning’s quotes reflected broad-based pressure across the three exchanges, each posting declines that illustrated diminished appetite for wheat at current valuations:

• Mar 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.38, down 3 ½ cents from the prior session, with current quotes down 4 ¼ cents
• May 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.46, down 4 ¼ cents, currently down 4 ¼ cents
• Mar 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.44 ¾, down 2 ¼ cents, currently down 4 ¼ cents
• May 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.55, down 2 ¾ cents, currently down 4 ½ cents
• Mar 26 MIAX Wheat closed at $5.78 ¼, down 3 ¼ cents, currently down 4 ¾ cents
• May 26 MIAX Wheat closed at $5.92 ½, down 3 cents, currently down 5 cents

These Monday morning quotes establish the baseline for market participants assessing wheat valuations across different quality grades and delivery months, with the spread between exchanges reflecting traditional regional price differentials.

Trader Positioning Signals and Export Sales Momentum

Commitment of Traders data released Friday revealed that managed money traders were actively covering short positions in Chicago wheat futures and options as of January 27, reducing their net short by 15,957 contracts to 94,743 contracts. This repositioning suggests some conviction among larger traders that oversupply concerns may be moderating. In Kansas City wheat, speculative traders trimmed 2,689 contracts from their net short position, bringing it down to 10,329 contracts.

Export sales data continues to project strength for U.S. wheat demand. Accumulated wheat sale commitments stand at 21.595 million metric tons, representing an 18% lead compared to the same week in the prior year. This achievement equals 88% of USDA’s full-year forecast and tracks in line with the 89% average pace for this point in the marketing year. Taiwan’s recent tender activity underscores this export momentum, with purchases of 106,350 metric tons of U.S. wheat late in the previous week demonstrating sustained international interest despite the Monday morning weakness in futures quotes.

The combination of solid export demand and managed money repositioning suggests that while Monday morning brought temporary weakness to wheat futures quotes, underlying fundamentals retain constructive elements that may limit downside risk in coming sessions.