Tuesday Morning Messages: Wheat Markets Navigate Mixed Signals

2026-02-16 05:16:18

The wheat complex is delivering contrasting Tuesday morning messages, with winter wheat varieties showing modest upside while spring wheat remains under pressure. The broader trend reflects a volatile trading environment where multiple factors are converging to influence price direction. A stronger US dollar index, which appreciated $0.581, continues to weigh on wheat values as it reduces competitiveness for American exports. This fundamental headwind has been particularly evident in recent trading sessions.

Market Opens with Mixed Signals on Wheat Prices

Chicago SRW futures retreated 9 to 11 ¼ cents at Monday’s close, with open interest data revealing new selling pressure accumulating 5,993 contracts. KC HRW futures posted more modest declines of 8 to 9 ½ cents, while OI increased by 1,821 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat was the weakest performer, falling 6 to 7 cents from the previous session. These differentiated moves suggest market participants are selectively repositioning based on specific wheat type fundamentals.

Flour Milling Activity Signals Softer Demand

The NASS Flour Milling report released Monday afternoon provided important context for the wheat complex. The data showed 227.58 million bushels of wheat ground for flour from October through December. This represents a 3.2 million bushel decrease compared to the same October-December period in 2025, signaling potential softening in domestic flour demand. Such demand indicators often foreshadow broader price pressures if the trend persists.

Export Flows Paint Complex Picture

Export Inspections data tells a more nuanced story about wheat’s global demand. Weekly shipments reached 326,828 metric tons (12 million bushels) for the week ending January 29. While this represents a 13.76% decline from the previous week, it stands 29.11% above the comparable week last year, reflecting year-over-year strength. Geographic distribution shows Mexico leading as the top destination with 60,886 MT, followed by Taiwan (55,702 MT) and Malaysia (55,630 MT). Marketing year shipments have totaled 16.69 million metric tons, up 18.61% year-over-year, underscoring sustained international demand despite recent volatility.

Managed Money Adjusts Positions

Commitment of Traders data from Friday revealed important positioning shifts. Managed money traders reduced short positions in Chicago wheat futures, covering 15,957 contracts and trimming their net short to 94,743 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, speculative traders reduced their net short position by 2,689 contracts, bringing it to 10,329 contracts. These adjustments suggest some technical relief as traders reassess their bearish bets in the face of persistent demand signals.

International Buying Supports Market Tone

Late last week, Taiwan added another supporting message to the market by purchasing 106,350 metric tons of wheat through a tender from US suppliers. Such institutional purchases from major buyers provide temporary anchors to prices and demonstrate underlying demand for American wheat despite the recent pricing weakness.

Contract Prices Reflect Broader Pressure

The following futures price snapshots from recent trading illustrate the prevailing weakness across the wheat complex:

Mar 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents, currently up 2 1/4 cents
May 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.36 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents
Mar 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.35 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents, currently up 1 cent
May 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.46 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents, currently up 1 1/4 cents
Mar 26 MIAX Wheat closed at $5.72 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents, currently up 1 1/4 cents
May 26 MIAX Wheat closed at $5.85, down 6 1/2 cents, currently down 1 1/4 cents

Tuesday morning’s wheat messages suggest a market searching for direction amid conflicting fundamental signals. While currency headwinds and domestic demand concerns are creating selling pressure, sustained international purchases and positive year-over-year export comparisons provide some counterweight. Traders monitoring the wheat complex should remain alert to shifts in positioning and currency dynamics that could amplify near-term volatility.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.