Corn Futures Pull Back as Market Tests 26 Out of 30 Resistance

Corn futures are retreating on Friday, with contracts sliding 5 to 5½ cents across the near-term months at midday. The broader commodity landscape is influencing the move, as the dollar index strengthens and crude oil weakens. Meanwhile, grain markets are displaying interesting dynamics with export performance running significantly ahead of official projections. This mixed backdrop creates a challenging environment for price stabilization as January closes out.

Price Weakness Amid External Pressure

Nearby cash corn has declined 5 cents to $3.90½, following the broader selloff in futures contracts. The stronger dollar continues to weigh on commodities generally, while energy markets add another layer of downward pressure. This combination is typical when multiple asset classes move in coordinated fashion. For traders, the challenge lies in distinguishing between structural market forces and temporary corrections as the month winds down.

Export Performance Surpassing Expectations

Export sales commitments have reached 57.694 MMT—a substantial 33% increase versus the same period last year—positioning corn ahead of historical seasonal patterns. Current sales pace sits at 71% of the USDA’s full-year export projection, which compares favorably to the 67% average seasonal pace. This outperformance signals sustained international demand despite domestic price pressures. The fact that sales have reached 26 out of 30 of the projected export window highlights how efficiently this marketing campaign is progressing relative to the government’s initial forecasts.

Contract-Specific Price Action

The forward curve reflects the broader weakness across all contract months. March contracts are down 5 cents to $4.25¾, while May futures have declined 5¼ cents to $4.33¾. July contracts show similar pressure, falling 5¼ cents to close at $4.40½. This relatively uniform decline across the curve suggests market-wide positioning adjustments rather than structural shifts in supply-demand fundamentals. Traders monitoring these contract spreads should note the consistency of selling pressure across different delivery periods.