At first glance, that’s a clear disinflation signal. But markets don’t react to numbers — they react to expectations.
A lower core CPI suggests:
• Inflation pressure is easing • The Fed may gain room to pivot • Rate cut probabilities could rise • Liquidity expectations may improve
That’s typically supportive for risk assets.
But here’s the nuance:
📌 Is this a sustained trend or a one-off drop? 📌 How does services inflation look beneath the surface? 📌 What happens to bond yields and the dollar next?
If yields fall and the dollar weakens, risk appetite usually expands.
If markets already priced in the softness, the reaction could be muted.
For me, this isn’t about celebrating the headline.
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#USCoreCPIHitsFour-YearLow
US Core CPI just printed a four-year low.
At first glance, that’s a clear disinflation signal.
But markets don’t react to numbers — they react to expectations.
A lower core CPI suggests:
• Inflation pressure is easing
• The Fed may gain room to pivot
• Rate cut probabilities could rise
• Liquidity expectations may improve
That’s typically supportive for risk assets.
But here’s the nuance:
📌 Is this a sustained trend or a one-off drop?
📌 How does services inflation look beneath the surface?
📌 What happens to bond yields and the dollar next?
If yields fall and the dollar weakens,
risk appetite usually expands.
If markets already priced in the softness,
the reaction could be muted.
For me, this isn’t about celebrating the headline.
It’s about watching liquidity.
Macro shifts change positioning.
Positioning drives trends.
Risk first.
Opportunity after confirmation.
Are you increasing exposure on this print —
or waiting to see how yields respond?$BTC $ETH $XRP