This round's BTC peak was almost impressive. Is it really just an illusion?

Is $60,000 BTC the bottom??
Many are saying that this round's BTC high didn't meet expectations. Is this really a market illusion?
The Bitcoin MVRV might provide an answer.
┈┈➤A simple overview of MVRV
Bitcoin MVRV can be used as one of the indicators to measure BTC bubbles.
MV: Market Value.
RV: Realized Market Value, which sums the value increments( or negative increments) of each BTC movement on the chain.
MVRV = MV / RV
╰┈✦Most likely, MVRV > 1
Because of CEX and ETF, many BTC transactions haven't occurred on-chain, so the actual value of BTC should be somewhat higher than the RV calculated on-chain, meaning MV/RV should mostly be above 1.
On November 18, the MVRV was 1.65, generally in an intermediate range.
╰┈✦In bear markets, MVRV usually drops below 1
Although MVRV is most likely above 1, it often dips below 1 during bear markets, indicating market sentiment is at a low.
From late December 2014 to July 2015, MVRV was nearly below 1; from mid-August to early October 2015, MVRV dropped below 1 again.
From late November 2018 to March 2019, MVRV was almost below 1; around March 2020, for about a week near 1, MVRV again fell below 1.
From mid-June 2022 to early January 2023, MVRV was volatile, but most of this period it was below 1.
On February 5, 2026, MVRV hit a phase low, but also reached 1.14.
┈┈➤MVRV peaks tend to occur slightly before BTC peaks
Initially, historical MVRV peaks were close to BTC price peaks. Over time, MVRV peaks have been increasingly ahead of BTC price peaks.
Historical MVRV peaks are:
2011-06-04 7.95
2013-11-18 6.3
2017-12-07 4.84
2021-02-21 3.98
2024-03-11 2.78
However, the current MVRV peak is very far from the BTC price peak, almost a year and a half ahead.
This indicates that the era dominated by miners and on-chain investors is gradually fading, and the four-year cycle influenced by halving may no longer be an iron law.
┈┈➤MVRV fluctuations
╰┈✦MVRV peaks are decreasing
In the long term, higher peaks of MVRV are becoming lower, indicating that BTC bubbles are getting smaller.
╰┈✦MVRV lows are rising
As MVRV bottoms continue to rise, it suggests that BTC is being less and less FUDed during bear markets.
However, at the end of 2022, due to the collapse of FTX, MVRV slightly broke below the trend line.
┈┈➤This round's MVRV peak didn't reach the trend line
Returning to the initial question, this round's MVRV is still a bit away from the trend line.
There are three possible reasons:
First, the Federal Reserve's high interest rates have led to insufficient market liquidity, which isn't enough to support BTC's upward movement. This is the fundamental reason.
Second, the approval of BTC ETFs has led ETF traders to be relatively rational, thereby limiting BTC sentiment bubbles. This is a structural reason.
Third, Trump's claim of imposing 100% tariffs, combined with the liquidation of 1011 market makers, is the direct cause.
┈┈➤This round's MVRV low is still far from the lower trend line
On February 5, 2026, MVRV reached a phase low of 1.14. But the gap from the lower trend line is still significant.
Some believe that since this round's rally didn't reach the trend, the decline should also stay a bit above the trend.
However: on one hand, the current low point of MVRV is still slightly farther from the lower trend line than the high point is from the upper trend line.
On the other hand, remember that as BTC price declines or oscillates at lower levels, RV will also decrease. Since MVRV = MV / RV, even if the expected MVRV remains unchanged, MV is on a downward trend.
┈┈➤In conclusion
As an indicator reflecting sentiment bubbles, this round's MVRV shows that the BTC high point was indeed somewhat disappointing.
Recently, the MVRV low point was 1.14, still some distance from the bottom trend line, and RV is still trending downward. Therefore, it is highly likely that $60,000 BTC is not the bottom.
Note: This article provides a one-sided analysis solely from the MVRV perspective and is not a final conclusion based on comprehensive analysis.