Understanding the Bear Market Cycle: What Separates This Downturn from Previous Crashes

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a transition from its 2023-2025 bull market into a more complex bear vs bull market decision point. Following the recent price pressures that saw Bitcoin drop below $75,000 and Ethereum test $2,100 levels, market participants are reassessing whether this represents a temporary correction within a continuing bull market or the beginning of a more prolonged bear market consolidation phase.

As of February 15, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $70,280, having tested lower levels of $68,730 in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum sits at $2,090 after touching $2,040. These price movements have sparked intense debate among leading market analysts about the true character of the current downturn.

The Bear Market Structure: Why This Cycle Differs Fundamentally

What makes this bear market phase distinct from historical cycles is its structural characteristics. According to Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen, the key differentiator is how we reached the top of the previous bull cycle. Unlike previous market peaks that occurred amid extreme euphoria and exuberant retail participation, the 2025 market top formed in a “lukewarm” environment with relatively measured sentiment. This fundamental difference explains why the expected bear market decline is likely to unfold more gradually.

Cowen’s analysis suggests that the 200-week moving average—currently positioned between $60,000 and $70,000—represents the primary technical floor for this cycle. Rather than experiencing the 70-80% crashes witnessed in previous bear markets, this downturn is expected to be considerably more moderate and protracted. The bear market momentum is anticipated to persist through at least mid-2026, with the possibility of continued pressure extending into Q3 or Q4 of 2026.

This slower bear market dynamic reflects what Real Vision Co-founder Raoul Pal describes as a prolonged “selling pressure digestion period.” Following the 1011 crash event, Pal notes that centralized exchanges absorbed approximately $10 billion in assets at significantly discounted levels. These platforms have since been gradually unwinding this inventory through algorithmic selling during US stock market trading hours. Pal’s analysis suggests that by the end of February, much of this systematic selling pressure should be largely cleared, potentially setting conditions for a rebound within the bear market range.

Support Levels and Bottom-Fishing Opportunity: Strategic Entry Points

Market participants are examining multiple support levels as potential bottom-fishing zones within this bear market structure. The $60,000-$70,000 range has emerged as the consensus target where many traders expect the bear market consolidation to stabilize. This zone aligns with technical support, historical precedent, and multiple analyst forecasts.

Tom Lee, a prominent cryptocurrency strategist, acknowledged during recent analysis that the market is in a bearish phase with significant short-term pressure. Lee suggested Ethereum may find initial support around $2,400 levels (a threshold already breached, with ETH now testing $2,090). This progression of lower support tests is consistent with bear market consolidation patterns.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju provides additional context, noting that bear market conditions persist due to continuous selling pressure coupled with an absence of meaningful capital inflow. However, Ju emphasizes a critical distinction: unless major holders like Michael Saylor execute significant liquidation events, the bear market should avoid replicating the catastrophic 70% crashes of previous cycles. Instead, this bear market appears more likely to form a “broad range consolidation” pattern—characterized by multiple tests of support and resistance rather than a single violent bottom.

Expert Perspectives: The Bull Market Rebound Timeline

Despite current bear market pressures, several leading voices maintain conviction about eventual bull market recovery prospects. ARK founder Cathie Wood has repeatedly suggested that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and emerging protocols like Hyperliquid represent compelling diversification investments. Wood’s perspective is grounded in historical data: since early 2020, Bitcoin’s price correlation with gold has remained at only 0.14—near zero—suggesting these assets provide genuine portfolio diversification benefits. Notably, in the last two major bull market cycles, gold prices actually led Bitcoin’s movements, inverting typical expectations.

Among more aggressive bottom-fishers, Alliance co-founder Qiao Wang has publicly outlined a phased accumulation strategy within this bear market environment. Wang indicates mental preparedness for Bitcoin to potentially touch $30,000-$40,000 levels (though not expecting this outcome) but identifies the $60,000-$70,000 range as the threshold for initiating slow accumulation. Should the bear market severity intensify to the $30,000-$40,000 range, Wang indicates willingness to execute an all-in positioning strategy.

Interestingly, prominent traders including Eugene Ng Ah Sio and Formula News founder Vida recently announced that they had identified local bear market bottoms. However, both subsequently announced on February 1 that they had hedged positions and exited, suggesting that even experienced market participants are cautious about committing to bull market conviction during this bear market consolidation phase.

The Bear vs Bull Market Inflection Point: What’s Next

The central question animating current market analysis is whether this bear market consolidation represents a mere pause within an ongoing bull trend or a genuine transition to an extended bear market cycle. The weight of current evidence suggests 2026 will function as a “digestion year”—neither a healthy bull market nor a violent bear market crash, but rather a prolonged period of range-bound consolidation and psychological adjustment.

For investors and traders, the bear vs bull market dynamic means opportunity lies in strategic positioning rather than tactical panic. The $60,000-$70,000 support zone offers the primary entry target for those bearish enough to respect bear market risks but bullish enough to maintain long-term conviction. The bear market selling pressure clearing by late February may catalyze the consolidation pattern that defines the next phase of price discovery.