Final Phase of the Ursa Cycle: Analysts Point to $60K as the Strategic Bottom

The cryptocurrency market may be entering the final moments of a bear cycle. According to recent analyses, although there are short-term pressures, Bitcoin is approaching zones where it has historically found significant support. The $60,000 to $68,000 range emerges as a critical pivot, particularly important for understanding the market’s next moves.

Bitcoin in Consolidation Zone: Between Short-Term Pressure and Formation Floor

Compass Point analysts describe the current moment as a transition in the bear cycle. While further declines are possible, a structured support column could prevent more aggressive short-term drops. Bitcoin recently tested levels below $81,000, reaching as low as $74,500 during recent volatility. These movements reflect the average entry point of investors in exchange-traded funds and summarize the broader market dynamics.

The key question now is whether the market can stabilize or if there is more room to fall.

$60K–$68K: Support Level with a History of Strength

The zone between $60,000 and $68,000 does not emerge randomly. On-chain data reveal that approximately 7% of the total supply of cryptocurrencies held by long-term holders was accumulated within this price range. This significant volume of long-term holdings demonstrates that, historically, this interval has attracted patient investors willing to accumulate during previous bear cycles.

The most solid support within this zone is near $65,000, making it a psychologically and technically relevant mark. If Bitcoin can stabilize here, it could signal the start of a more sustainable recovery.

Why ETFs Amplify Current Pressure

Since mid-January, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows exceeding $2.9 billion. With more than half of ETF assets trading at a discount (below the entry price), selling pressures may persist. This outflow reflects not only institutional investors’ discouragement but also the high average entry cost during certain periods.

Meanwhile, the zone between $81,000 and $83,000 now acts as upper resistance, blocking more aggressive recoveries.

The $70K–$80K Trap: No Real Support Zone

Interestingly, the range between $70,000 and $80,000 shows a fragile support structure. Less than 1% of long-term holders’ supply was acquired in this zone, creating what experts describe as a structural vacuum. This means that if selling pressure persists, the price could pass through this range more quickly, without encountering significant technical barriers.

Risk Scenarios: What Would Happen Below $60K

If Bitcoin manages to break through the support zone of $60K–$68K, the next potential floor would be around $55,000. However, analysts emphasize that this scenario would require extreme conditions in the broader market, including significant risk aversion in traditional assets and turbulence comparable to that seen in 2022.

2022 served as a reference precisely because it combined devastating factors: a crashing stock market, cascading crypto sector bankruptcies, and widespread macroeconomic pressure. Without a similar trigger, such a deep decline remains a low-probability scenario.

Final Outlook: The Bear Market Might Be Coming to an End

Analysts’ narratives point to a market in the final cycle of a bear, but this is not yet confirmed. The $60K–$68K zone functions as the potential long-term bottom, where the history of patient investor accumulation provides real psychological and technical support.

Updated price data (February 14, 2026):

• Bitcoin: $69.90K (+1.38% in 24h)
• BNB: $633.20 (+2.49% in 24h)
• XRP: $1.50 (+6.45% in 24h)

The recommendation remains clear: monitor support zones, manage risk exposure, and stay cautious until more solid technical confirmations emerge. The end of the bear cycle may be near, but final capitulations are often the most dynamic.