Bitcoin Experiences Exponential Decline: Technical Signals Turn Negative

Cryptocurrency markets are once again facing significant pressure, with Bitcoin experiencing an exponential decline that has drastically shifted sentiment. Recent data shows BTC trading in a weak zone, and analysts are beginning to consider scenarios of much deeper declines than earlier expectations this month.

BTC Price Breaks Key Support Below $80,000

In recent trading sessions, Bitcoin has faced consistent selling pressure. The price has dropped sharply from previous levels, approaching a ten-month low around the $77,600 zone. Real-time data indicates BTC is currently trading at $69,770 with a 24-hour change of +3.01%, although the daily low touched $67,630.

The loss of a strategic support zone—particularly the moving average around $80,700—has altered the technical landscape. Buyers have yet to demonstrate the strength to recover this critical level, leaving BTC in a highly vulnerable position for further declines.

21-Week EMA: Historical Warning Signal for Bearish Phase

The most concerning technical development is Bitcoin falling below the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Historically, breaching this level often signals the start of a prolonged and significant bearish phase in the market cycle.

Rekt Capital, a leading analysis firm, has identified that the current movement pattern mirrors structures seen in April 2022—a period preceding a long-lasting bearish downturn. Since the latest EMA cross, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 17% from $90,000 to $78,000, creating increasingly negative momentum.

Downside Targets: From $74,400 to Sub-$50,000 Scenario

In recent market analysis, traders are focusing on deeper liquidity zones. The $74,400 level has been identified as the next support to test, but a more concerning scenario is a bearish move toward $49,180 if the downtrend continues without buyer intervention.

The shift from bullish to bearish sentiment occurred very rapidly after key support levels failed to hold. This swift change indicates the depth of current market fear.

On-Chain Signals Confirm Long-Term Market Risks

On-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant provides deeper insight into medium- and long-term investor behavior. Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of holders who have held BTC for 12-18 months.

This metric is crucial because it represents the average cost basis at which the last movement occurred. When BTC price falls below this realized price and remains in that zone, historical data shows a transition from normal correction to a structural bearish regime.

CryptoQuant notes that the realized price now acts as a strong resistance. This means any upward rally is likely to fail when higher-cost holders start distributing to break even. The combination of factors—price below realized cost, negative profitability across the portfolio, and slowing growth—are all consistent with an extended bearish phase in previous historical cycles.

CME Gap at $84K: Temporary Rebound Opportunity?

Although technical structures appear bearish, some traders are still monitoring the CME futures gap around the $84,000 level. CME gaps are widely known to act as magnets for price in the short term—markets often attempt to fill these gaps as tactical rebounds.

It is possible that Bitcoin may attempt a recovery toward the $84K zone in the coming weeks, but with an important caveat: this rebound would be temporary unless key support levels are reclaimed and market sentiment shifts fundamentally.

Conclusion: Beware of Ongoing Risks

Bitcoin faces significant multi-dimensional pressure. The loss of key support, deteriorating technical signals, and confirmation from on-chain data all point in the same direction: a sustained bearish phase. While a short-term bounce toward $84K remains possible, the broader structure indicates material downside risks, with some analysts even considering more extreme scenarios below $50,000 if historical patterns repeat.

Risk management remains a top priority. This is not investment advice, only market analysis based on available technical and on-chain data.