When Ripple's Former CTO Speaks: XRP Price Debate Intensifies

David Schwartz’s recent commentary on XRP’s potential to reach $50–$100 has reignited fierce debate within the crypto community. The former CTO of Ripple, who played a foundational role in XRP’s development, made carefully worded statements that sent ripples through Crypto Twitter. When asked whether XRP could achieve such ambitious price targets, Schwartz replied with characteristic caution: “I don’t feel comfortable saying something like that.” This measured response was quickly interpreted by some as skepticism, though the veteran developer later clarified that his discomfort stemmed from probability assessment rather than a fundamental dismissal of the possibility.

The CTO’s Paradox: Why Schwartz Built His Exit Early

Understanding Schwartz’s conservative stance requires examining his own track record with XRP—a history that reveals both conviction and pragmatism. The former CTO entered the XRP market at approximately $0.006 per token. However, by the time the asset reached $0.10, Schwartz began liquidating his position, crystallizing gains of nearly 1,567%. This early exit raised eyebrows at the time, and for good reason: XRP did not stop its upward trajectory. The asset eventually surged to $0.25, meaning the CTO sold far earlier than the ultimate peak of that cycle.

This pattern—early entry combined with early exit—reveals a critical insight about why experienced developers often express caution. It’s not that they lack confidence in their creation; rather, they have learned through experience that markets frequently exceed rational expectations. Schwartz himself had built infrastructure for a asset that would prove him underestimated.

Today, with XRP trading at $1.46 (as of February 2026), the original $0.006 entry point now represents a stunning return—one that vindicated both his involvement and his cautious exit strategy. His actions speak as loudly as his words.

Probability, Not Prediction: Bird Defends the CTO’s Measured Tone

Crypto analyst and XRPL developer Bird stepped into the conversation to provide crucial context. Bird emphasized that characterizing Schwartz’s statements as bearish would be a fundamental misreading. According to Bird, when a seasoned CTO says something like “I don’t think it’s likely,” this reflects probability-based risk assessment, not absolute belief or disbelief.

Bird further illustrated this distinction by revisiting Schwartz’s historical Bitcoin commentary. The former CTO once famously considered Bitcoin reaching $100 an “impossible dream”—a prediction that proved spectacularly wrong. Bitcoin went on to exceed $120,000, a outcome that would have seemed absurd to someone making such an early assessment.

This historical parallel matters enormously. It demonstrates that experienced voices often express caution not from lack of vision, but from an abundance of humility born from watching markets defy predictions repeatedly. What sounds like doubt is often simply seasoned professionals protecting themselves and others from overconfidence.

Probability vs. Belief: Understanding the Veteran’s Vocabulary

One of the most misunderstood dimensions of Schwartz’s commentary is the semantic difference between likelihood and conviction. A CTO expressing skepticism about probability is not the same as a CTO denying possibility. Bird highlighted that Schwartz’s carefully chosen language reflects hard-won wisdom rather than weakness of conviction.

In financial markets, probability statements serve as tools for calibrating expectations. They are not prophecies. When insiders speak conservatively, they are often encoding lessons learned through years of observing how dramatically markets can surprise even the most informed participants. Schwartz’s caution may actually indicate deeper alignment with XRP’s long-term vision—because those who truly understand a project’s potential often know that premature predictions can create dangerous expectations.

Adoption and Clarity: The Path to Higher Valuations

For XRP to reach $100 per token, several conditions would need to align. Widespread adoption of XRP within global payment infrastructure would be essential. Regulatory clarity around cryptocurrencies and tokens would need to mature. Liquidity would need to expand dramatically. Market capitalization considerations would require sustained institutional and retail interest.

Schwartz himself has previously explained the structural reasons why XRP cannot remain perpetually undervalued, given its potential role in streamlining cross-border transactions. The technological foundation exists. The question becomes one of adoption timelines and regulatory environments—factors that remain beyond the control of any single CTO or developer.

Lessons from History: Can XRP Defy Expectations Again?

The arc of XRP’s price history provides one clear lesson: early skepticism rarely constrains long-term outcomes in crypto. From $0.006 to $1.46, the asset has repeatedly confounded those who doubted its trajectory. Bird urged investors to view the CTO’s measured commentary within this broader historical context.

When someone with Schwartz’s experience and pedigree expresses caution about probability, the wisest interpretation is to listen—not as a warning to avoid XRP, but as a reminder that markets operate according to their own logic. Experienced voices often carry more valuable insight than fearful reactions precisely because they have already witnessed paradigm shifts.

The key insight for investors lies in separating emotional reactions from rational interpretation. Caution from veterans like Schwartz frequently signals alignment rather than doubt. As XRP’s history has repeatedly demonstrated, the assets that achieve the most dramatic price appreciation are often those where the original architects remain fundamentally committed—even if they express that commitment through carefully measured probability assessments rather than bold predictions.