CPI: 8-month low

Core CPI: 5-year low

2025 Non-farm payrolls revision: -862,000 (worst since 2009)

Large bankruptcies: Worst since 2009

Credit card delinquencies: Worst since 2011

Vacancy-to-unemployed ratio: Worst since pandemic

Housing market buyers vs. sellers: Worst ever

But according to the Fed, every aspect of the economy is strong, and the only concern is inflation.

The Federal Reserve is not describing the economy; it is managing expectations to prevent a liquidity cascade. The 2025 benchmark revision of -862,000 payrolls confirms that resilience was a statistical mirage. When large bankruptcies hit 2009 levels and credit card delinquencies surpass a year peak, the lag effect of restrictive policy is no longer a risk it is the current reality. Sustaining a hawkish bias while core CPI hits a 5year low is not a strategy; it is a policy error in real-time.

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