The US Government Prediction Market: Risk Assessment and Practical Probability Calculation Formula

BearMarketSunriser · 2026-02-13T16:16:08+00:00

Market analysts are closely monitoring the 48% probability of a U.S. government shutdown before Valentine's Day, as reported by Polymarket. Recent fluctuations in this probability indicate shifting political sentiments and the market's risk assessment. With a betting volume of around $87,000, this data reflects a significant consensus among traders, highlighting the importance of prediction markets in assessing political risks.

BearMarketSunriser

2026-02-13 16:16:08

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Market analysts are closely monitoring the likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown before Valentine’s Day, based on specific figures from official prediction platforms. The probability calculation formula in these cases directly reflects the level of confidence the market community has in potential political scenarios.

Probability Valued at 48% on Polymarket

Data from Polymarket, a reputable prediction market platform, shows the chance of a U.S. government shutdown before Valentine’s Day is currently at 48%. This figure indicates a split opinion within the trading community, where each dollar wagered represents a vote for the event’s occurrence. According to Odaily reports, analysts have observed significant fluctuations in recent days.

Probability Fluctuations and Market Sentiment

Notably, this probability spiked to 57% at one point before decreasing to the current level. This decline suggests that political developments have been positive or that the market has adjusted its risk assessment. These fluctuations demonstrate how the probability formula, based on real-time market data, reflects changes in the political landscape.

Trading Volume and Data Reliability

The total amount wagered on this event is approximately $87,000, a sizable figure that ensures the data is representative. This scale allows traders and market observers to trust the calculated probability, as it reflects the consensus of a significant number of participants. Prediction markets like Polymarket are important tools for better understanding how markets price political risks ahead of major events.

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