Federal Reserve Interest Rate Forecasts: What to Expect Until June 30

Market operators are engaging in extensive discussions about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions on interest rates in the coming months. Data collected from CME’s official tools via “FedWatch” indicate that the probability of a pause in March is significantly high. Considering the period until June 30, monitoring the movements of interest rate changes is essential.

Conservative Expectations for March

According to data from CME’s FedWatch tools, the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in March is 15.3%. From this, it can be seen that significant changes in March are not highly expected. The likelihood that the current level will remain unchanged is as high as 84.7%. These figures suggest that the market is largely avoiding radical moves within the next month.

Increased Volatility in April

As we approach April, the probabilities of interest rate movements vary more. Based on Jin10 analytical platform’s insights, the probability of reducing the accumulated 25 basis points by April reaches 29.0%. Additionally, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point decrease remains at a modest 3.0%. The chance that rates will stay unchanged is noted at 68.0%. This distribution of probabilities indicates that slight changes are expected in April.

Accelerated Cumulative Cuts by June 30

As we move toward June 30, market expectations for rate cuts naturally strengthen. The probability of a 25 basis point reduction accumulated by June rises to 49.5%. This figure has increased noticeably compared to previous months. Therefore, during the period leading up to June 30, market operators are increasingly viewing more active rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as more likely.

Overall, the outlook from March to June 30 suggests that the Federal Reserve plans to take increasingly bold steps. Expectations for each month gradually shift toward rate reductions.