Liquidity indicators reach the bottom, does SSR stabilize at zero or indicate a true reversal?

In mid-February 2026, the crypto market is experiencing a rare “emotion disconnect.” The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 5 on February 12th, hitting the lowest level in its history since its inception. Bitcoin repeatedly tests around $67,000, having retraced more than 29% from the brief peak of $95,000 in January.

However, on the ashes of this fear, a metric regarded by seasoned traders as a “liquidity indicator”—the Bitcoin:Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) 90-day Oscillator—is slowly but steadily moving toward the zero line. On February 12th, the indicator registered at -0.15, a significant recovery from -0.30 at the end of January.

What is SSR? Why the 90-Day Oscillator Is More Honest Than Price

The SSR (Stablecoin Supply Ratio) is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market cap to the total market cap of stablecoins. A lower SSR indicates that stablecoins have more “purchasing power” relative to Bitcoin; a higher SSR suggests stablecoins are relatively scarce, and potential buying pressure may be exhausted.

The 90-day Oscillator smooths out short-term fluctuations of this ratio, measuring Bitcoin’s relative strength within the entire stablecoin ecosystem. When the indicator is above the zero line (green zone), it signals that Bitcoin is systematically absorbing liquidity—typical of risk-on cycles; when it remains below the zero line (pink zone), it indicates Bitcoin is persistently weak relative to stablecoins, and the market is in risk-averse mode.

Crypto analyst Axel pointed out on February 12th that over the past six months, the SSR 90-day Oscillator was predominantly in the “pink zone.” In mid-January, the indicator briefly turned positive at +0.057, coinciding with Bitcoin breaking through $95,000, and the 30-day USDT market cap change rebounded to +1.4 billion USD—yet neither signal proved sustainable.

By early February, the SSR 90-day Oscillator retreated back to -0.15, with Bitcoin pulling back to around $67,000. Axel described the January rebound as “a tentative recovery attempt,” while February’s move was “a failed attempt.”

Data Doesn’t Lie: Gate Is Becoming a Window for “Smart Money” Inflows

In a broader context of overall deleveraging, not all exchanges are experiencing outflows. According to the latest Coinglass data on February 13th, Gate recorded a net inflow of 211.55 BTC in the past 24 hours, topping global exchange inflows.

This data must be interpreted within a macro liquidity picture. Meanwhile, the 30-day USDT market cap change has fallen to -2.87 billion USD, confirming ongoing liquidity outflows from the entire crypto ecosystem. Against this backdrop, Gate’s net Bitcoin inflow is contrarian, reflecting that some mature traders are taking advantage of the current low-liquidity environment to position on the left side.

This creates an interesting symmetry with mid-January—when the SSR briefly turned positive, FOMO sentiment surged; now, with SSR still negative and the Fear Index at historic lows, institutional rebalancing and retail panic are happening simultaneously, with chips shifting from high-leverage speculators to long-term holders’ cold wallets.

Deleveraging Entering the Second Half: The Significance of Zero Funding Rate

In early February, total open interest in Bitcoin futures dropped to about $34 billion, near a two-year low. Unlike previous deleveraging episodes in mid-2025, this contraction in open interest was not accompanied by persistently negative funding rates.

In fact, perpetual contract funding rates across major exchanges have generally returned to neutral, with some trading pairs even showing slight negative rates. This indicates that leverage longs have been systematically cleared, and the market no longer bears the high rollover costs for holding positions.

Historically, the transition of funding rates from positive to neutral and then negative is often the final stage of exhausted selling pressure. QCP Capital noted in their latest market update that, despite fragile market sentiment, the narrowing of the Coinbase premium index suggests “US-led spot selling pressure is easing.”

Meanwhile, Binance’s 7-day net active trading volume turned positive at +320 million USD in mid-February, ending a month-long deep negative zone. The decline in seller-initiated activity provides micro liquidity support for further SSR recovery toward the zero line.

True Reversal Signal: Not Breaking Zero, But “Stabilizing” Above It

This is the most overlooked yet crucial point in Axel’s analysis. A brief return of the SSR 90-day Oscillator above zero is not enough to confirm a trend reversal—January’s case proved that.

The real mid-term reversal signal is when the indicator re-enters the positive zone and remains stably above the zero line for at least 2-3 weeks. This logic stems from the nature of SSR: since it measures Bitcoin’s relative strength against the entire stablecoin system, a short-term pulse upward often reflects short-term short covering within exchanges, not systemic liquidity return.

Only when SSR can sustain above zero for three consecutive weeks can we confirm that stablecoin issuers and holders are actively converting funds into Bitcoin, rather than just a speculative ETF inflow pulse.

In this sense, the current recovery from -0.30 to -0.15 is more structurally meaningful than January’s rise from -0.10 to +0.05. The former occurred amid massive leverage deleveraging and extreme market pessimism; the latter during a period still influenced by “Uptober” euphoria and high funding rates.

Entry Point for Right-Side Traders: Waiting for “Green” Confirmation

For traders on the Gate platform, the current market state offers a rare “decision threshold.”

Left-side traders are already deploying in batches, leveraging Gate’s low fees and deep liquidity, as evidenced by the continuous net inflow of Bitcoin. Right-side traders can wait for a clearer confirmation: the SSR 90-day Oscillator staying above zero for 2-3 consecutive weeks.

From a risk management perspective, waiting for confirmation may mean missing the steepest part of the bottom rebound, but it effectively avoids the risk of chasing false breakouts like in January. Axel is cautious: until SSR confirms stabilization above zero, each rebound should be viewed as a high-volatility trap.

Summary

Bitcoin has been consolidating near $67,000 for nearly two weeks, with clear signs of reduced active selling pressure. The SSR 90-day Oscillator has recovered from -0.30 to -0.15, and stablecoin market share has broken above 10%. These signals collectively indicate that liquidity has not left the market; it is merely in a “standby” mode in stablecoin form.

The 211.55 BTC net inflow on Gate may be an early sign of this standby capital beginning to redeploy. But to confirm whether this marks the start of a larger trend, we need to watch whether SSR can break above zero effectively within the next 2-3 weeks.

Markets always sprout from despair and grow through doubt. SSR is approaching a critical threshold—will it be swallowed again by the pink zone, or will it finally stabilize above the green zone for the first time since Q4 2025? The answer may lie in the coming two weeks.