【$SOL Signal】No Position | Weak rebound in a downtrend

$SOL Is experiencing a weak rebound after a 4-hour decline, with the price suppressed below the EMA20 (81.03). The overall structure remains within a downward channel.

🎯 Direction: No Position (NoPosition)

Market Analysis: The price has been declining from the high of 142.32, and the current rebound momentum is weak. The 4-hour Buy/Sell Ratio remains below 0.5, indicating dominant selling pressure. Depth imbalance (-16.20%) and the bid-ask ratio (0.72) show thicker sell orders, with heavy resistance above.

Hardcore Logic: Key bearish signals resonating. 1) Technical: Price below EMA20 and EMA50, RSI (41.74) in the weak zone, no oversold divergence. 2) Derivatives: Funding rate is negative (-0.0055%), but open interest (OI) remains stable rather than rising, ruling out a strong short squeeze and suggesting a weak equilibrium dominated by bears. 3) Order Book: Sell walls (13.2K at 80.00) are significantly thicker than buy walls, and the price encounters strong supply when rebounding to the 79.8-80.0 range.

Currently, conditions are not favorable for a high-probability long position (not above EMA20, no rising OI), nor do they meet the criteria for shorting (funding rate not extremely positive, no decreasing OI + top divergence). The price needs to break through and hold above 81.0 (EMA20) to reverse the short-term downtrend; otherwise, the rebound is a shorting opportunity. Risk management core: Forcing trades now is like giving away money; it’s better to stay flat and wait for clearer signals.

Trade here 👇 $SOL

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