Can Bitcoin Hold Above $60,000? Galaxy's Key Support Analysis

Galaxy’s research team has raised concerns about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, suggesting the world’s largest cryptocurrency could face significant downward pressure heading toward the $60,000 level. With BTC currently trading around $66,980 as of mid-February 2026, the margin between current levels and that critical support zone appears razor-thin. Investment company Galaxy, led by billionaire Mike Novogratz, believes the bearish momentum may have further to run, with previous cycle patterns suggesting an even lower floor around $56,000-$58,000 remains possible.

The analysis draws from a compelling historical pattern: excluding 2017, Bitcoin’s price declines of 40% from its all-time highs have consistently been followed by additional losses exceeding 50% within three months. When Bitcoin peaked at $126,200 on October 6, 2025, and subsequently fell 40% to $74,500 by February 2, this historical precedent suggested further downside could extend toward $63,000—or potentially as low as $56,000 if the steeper pattern repeats.

When $60,000 Becomes the Critical Test

Several factors have converged to increase the probability of Bitcoin testing the $60,000 support level. Galaxy identified significant ETF fund outflows as a primary headwind, with the final two weeks of January representing the second and third worst weeks in Bitcoin ETF history, totaling $2.8 billion in capital exits. This redemption pressure continues to weigh on prices.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against currency devaluation has weakened considerably, undermining one traditional narrative that previously supported the asset during economic uncertainty. The stalled legislative progress on the CLARITY Act further diminished near-term catalysts, with Galaxy analysts noting the measure would likely benefit alternative cryptocurrencies more than Bitcoin even if passed.

Perhaps most telling: major institutional holders show no clear signs of aggressive accumulation at current levels, suggesting conviction among the largest players remains subdued. The lack of whale buying activity at these prices removes a traditional support mechanism that has preceded previous recoveries.

Technical Support Zones: Where the Buyers Are (and Aren’t)

Galaxy’s blockchain analysis reveals a troubling picture across multiple technical support levels. The 200-week and 50-week moving averages—key technical indicators that have historically anchored price recoveries during bull cycles—point toward a $56,000-$58,000 floor.

Significantly, Bitcoin broke below the 50-week moving average support in November 2025, meaning the next major milestone sits far below current prices. Throughout the 2013-2014, 2017-2018, 2019, and 2021 bull markets, this 50-week average repeatedly served as the line in the sand where selling exhausted itself. The current situation differs: that level has been breached, suggesting price discovery may continue toward the 200-week barrier.

A critical vulnerability exists in the $70,000-$80,000 range, where Galaxy identified a significant gap in accumulated buying activity. Few coins were purchased at these price levels, creating a zone with minimal natural support. Most selling pressure since early October originated from investors who bought Bitcoin above $111,000, while the $80,000-$92,000 zone contains substantial holdings from a prior uptrend that could create resistance to any recovery attempts.

The ratio between bitcoins purchased below versus above current levels stood at 56% to 44%, a key metric that historically converges toward 50-50 at market bottoms. When these two indicators reach equilibrium, Galaxy’s historical models show cycle reversals typically follow.

The Average Cost Question: $84,000 as a Forgotten Floor

Based on 2024 ETF capital flows, Galaxy calculated that institutional funds entered Bitcoin at an average cost of approximately $84,000. Since mid-fall 2024, BTC has rarely traded below this price level—a situation that held for several months until recent weeks. This $84,000 zone may offer psychological support, particularly if institutional buyers decide to add on weakness rather than sell at losses.

What Galaxy Got Wrong—And How They’re Recalibrating

Last year, Galaxy’s forecasting team predicted Bitcoin would soar above $150,000 in the first half of 2026 and potentially reach $185,000 by year-end, betting heavily on institutional adoption and government acceptance. By early November 2025, however, that bullish thesis had collapsed. The firm cut its price target to $120,000, citing deteriorating momentum and a shift in market structure.

The forecast revision reflected several missed assumptions: capital that was expected to flow into cryptocurrency has instead moved toward traditional assets, while investor confidence eroded faster than anticipated. This recalibration suggests even Galaxy’s more cautious views may face additional pressure tests if market conditions continue deteriorating.

The path to $60,000 appears increasingly plausible given current technical positioning, fund redemptions, and the absence of strong institutional buying signals. Whether Bitcoin finds sustainable support at that level or continues lower toward $56,000-$58,000 may ultimately depend on whether large holders view prices as capitulation opportunities or continued risk.