Verifying the Accuracy of Gold Price Predictions | Performance from 2024 to 2026 and Outlook for 2030

InvestingHaven’s gold price forecasts have achieved a high accuracy rate for five consecutive years. As of February 2026, it is valuable to examine how closely the predictions for 2024 and 2025 have materialized and to assess the outlook from 2026 to 2030.

How Accurate Were Past Predictions? Verification of 2024 and 2025 Results

In the 2024 gold price forecast, a peak of approximately $2,600 was projected. In reality, by August 2024, gold had already reached this target. This early achievement indicates that the market’s upward momentum accelerated faster than initially anticipated.

For 2025, the forecast aimed for a peak exceeding $3,000. As of early 2026, evaluating how close the market came to this level or if it surpassed it is a key indicator of prediction accuracy. InvestingHaven analysts expected gold to reach around $3,100 by the end of 2025. Comparing this with actual market movements will help validate the effectiveness of their analytical framework.

The upward trajectory of gold from 2024 to 2025 suggests that macroeconomic factors such as inflation expectations, money supply, and bond yields may have exerted a stronger influence than previously estimated.

Structural Factors Supporting Gold Price Growth | Inflation Expectations and Financial Trends

The primary factor influencing the accuracy of gold price forecasts is the trend in inflation expectations. Looking at the TIP ETF (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ETF), after a decline in 2022, inflation expectations have gradually risen. This upward trend underpins the bullish gold market theory.

The trend in the monetary base (M2) is also significant. After a sharp rise in 2021 and stagnation in 2022, M2 is now gradually increasing again. Historically, gold and M2 tend to move in the same direction, and this correlation forms a foundation for future gold price projections. The strong correlation with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is similarly important. Past deviations have been temporary, and the re-linking of CPI and gold prices is expected to support the outlook from 2026 onward.

Long-term charts spanning 50 years show patterns such as the “descending wedge” from the 1980s to the 1990s and the “cup and handle” pattern from 2013 to 2023. These bullish reversal patterns, formed over more than a decade, suggest that subsequent upward cycles could become more powerful and sustained.

Comparing Major Financial Institutions’ Gold Price Predictions | Consensus Price Range Formation

Major financial institutions like Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs have published their 2025 gold price forecasts. Bloomberg presents a wide range from $1,709 to $2,727, reflecting market uncertainty. Goldman Sachs provides a more specific target of $2,700.

Aggregating forecasts from Commerzbank, ANZ, Macquarie, UBS, Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citi Research indicates that the consensus price for 2025 converges around $2,700 to $2,800. This “consensus price range” indicates a shared market outlook.

However, Macquarie forecasts a lower peak of $2,463 in Q1 2025, with expectations of a subsequent rise toward $3,000, representing a somewhat different scenario.

InvestingHaven’s forecast of approximately $3,100 for 2025 is more bullish than the average of these institutional predictions. This divergence stems from differences in confidence in long-term technical analysis and leading indicators.

Leading Indicators and Market Environment | Currency Markets and Futures Signals

Several leading indicators influence gold prices. The bullish trend in the euro (EUR/USD) fosters a weaker dollar environment, which is supportive of gold. The long-term chart of US Treasury bonds (20-year bonds) also indicates a bullish outlook, creating a positive environment for gold.

Looking at COMEX futures positioning, commercial net short positions remain high. This acts as a “stretch indicator,” suggesting limited upside potential for gold in the near term. However, a gradual upward trend remains possible.

From 2026 to 2030 | Next Targets for Gold Price Forecasts

As of 2026, the framework for gold price forecasts should be updated as follows:

Annual forecast ranges:

• 2026: Peak around $3,900
• 2027-2028: Gradual upward progression
• 2029: $4,000 to $4,500 range
• 2030: Peak estimate of $5,000

These projections assume that inflation expectations maintain a long-term upward channel and that central banks continue their monetary easing stance. Since the bull market in gold began with a multi-decade pattern completion, subsequent rises are expected to follow a cycle of “slow start, accelerating toward the end.”

The relationship between gold and silver also warrants attention. Historically, during late stages of a gold bull market, silver tends to rise rapidly. A 50-year chart of the gold-silver ratio suggests that silver may be approaching a phase of explosive growth.

Risks and Limitations of Forecasts

Downside risks that could invalidate gold price forecasts include a drop below $1,770. This level holds significance as a long-term trendline. However, considering current fundamentals, the probability of this risk materializing is very low.

Forecasts beyond ten years are inherently limited. Market environments follow unique macroeconomic cycles roughly every decade, making projections beyond 2030 overly speculative. Therefore, current gold price forecasts should be confined to the timeframe up to 2030.

For investors, understanding the structural factors behind these forecasts—such as inflation expectations, money supply, bond yields, and currency trends—is crucial. Grasping the underlying logical framework is more important than individual predicted values, as it forms the basis for long-term investment decisions.