Policy game enters "patience mode"

Non-farm payrolls are strong, and the most direct impact is on the Federal Reserve's policy pace. Strong employment gives policymakers more reason to remain patient and avoid premature easing. For them, the biggest risk is not slowing growth but a second surge in inflation.
The market has always expected a "policy turning point to save everything," but in reality, policies are more lagging variables. Decision-makers need to see sustained and widespread data changes, not just one surprise. In other words, a single unexpected result can't determine the direction but can change sentiment pricing.
In this environment, asset prices are more likely driven by expectations swings rather than fundamental shocks. Today, trading on rate cut expectations; tomorrow, delaying rate cuts—prices are like kites pulled by emotions.
Mature investors should focus more on position management and rhythm control rather than predicting the outcome of the next meeting.

Macro trading has never been about fortune-telling; it's about probability management. Those who can control drawdowns amid uncertainty are the ones who can survive until the trend truly emerges. #非农数据大超预期