Bitcoin Faces Sharp Drop as Bearish Signals Mount

Bitcoin is experiencing sustained selling pressure, and technical indicators are increasingly warning of deeper declines ahead. After losing critical support barriers, BTC has plunged to $65.80K (down 2.78% in 24 hours), reinforcing concerns that the market may be shifting into a prolonged bear cycle. With traders now citing sub-$50K targets and on-chain data flashing red, the outlook remains decidedly risk-off.

Price Drop Intensifies as Key Supports Crumble

Bitcoin’s recent sharp drop has pushed the price well below the psychologically important $80,000 level, marking a significant technical breakdown. The currency is now trading near ten-month lows, and recovery attempts have repeatedly failed. The loss of the true market mean around $80,700—a major bullish anchor—has accelerated selling momentum and signaled that institutional bids may be thinning. Current price action at $65.80K suggests the decline has room to extend further if support fails to hold.

Technical Signals Point to Bear Market Risk

A major red flag for bulls is Bitcoin’s breakdown below the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Historically, this technical level has served as a bear market trigger. When BTC breaks below the 21-week EMA and fails to recover, prior market cycles have shifted into extended downtrends. Notably, a similar EMA crossover occurred in April 2022, preceding a prolonged bear market phase. Since the latest break, Bitcoin has already fallen roughly 17% from recent highs near $90,000. This structural pattern mirrors previous bear phases, raising concerns that current weakness may not be a simple correction but rather the start of a more sustained decline.

Deep Downside Targets Gaining Attention

Market participants are increasingly focused on deeper downside liquidity zones. Near-term targets center around $74,400, but if the bear trend persists, traders are eyeing even more dramatic declines toward $49,180. The speed at which sentiment has deteriorated following support failures underscores how quickly risk appetites can evaporate in crypto markets. Some traders believe that if price breaks decisively through current lows, capitulation selling could accelerate drawdowns.

CME Futures Gap May Offer Temporary Relief

Despite the overwhelming bearish structure, a CME futures gap near $84,000 could act as a short-term price magnet. These gaps often attract price reversals before longer-term trends resume. BTC might attempt a bounce toward that zone in the near weeks, providing temporary relief for long-position holders. However, any rebound is likely to be fleeting unless major structural support is reclaimed—and current on-chain metrics suggest that is unlikely without a substantial shift in market sentiment.

On-Chain Data Signals Structural Weakness

CryptoQuant’s latest analysis reinforces the bearish case. Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price—the average cost basis of coins that last moved 12–18 months ago. When price drops below realized cost and remains there, markets typically transition from normal corrections into structural bear regimes. In this scenario, realized price transforms from support into resistance, as coin holders attempt to exit at breakeven prices rather than accumulate. The alignment of negative profitability, slowing on-chain growth, and price weakness below realized cost closely mirrors conditions that preceded extended bear phases in previous cycles.

What Comes Next

The converging bearish signals paint a sobering picture. Technical breakdown, realized price resistance, and deteriorating on-chain structure all point in the same direction. While a temporary bounce toward $84K remains possible, the broader trajectory is decidedly bearish. If history repeats, deeper declines toward sub-$50K levels could unfold over coming weeks. Traders should remain cautious, monitor risk positions closely, and avoid overconfidence in near-term reversals. The bear market risk is real and requires active portfolio management.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.