The probability of a government shutdown in the U.S. before Valentine's Day remains volatile

ImpermanentLossFan · 2026-02-12T20:10:46+00:00

Polymarket displays the market's volatility regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown, with an current probability of 48%. Uncertainty in budget negotiations is influencing these expectations as the February 14th deadline approaches.

ImpermanentLossFan

2026-02-12 20:10:46

Abstract generation in progress

The Polymarket prediction platform reflects the market’s volatility regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown. According to data reported by Odaily, the current probability of this event is around 48%, after previously climbing to 57% in earlier days. This 9 percentage point decrease suggests significant fluctuations in market expectations just two days before the deadline (February 14).

With a total volume of approximately $87,000 wagered on this prediction contract, market participants continue to actively assess political risks. The volatility in these probabilities reflects the uncertainty surrounding budget negotiations in Washington. As Valentine’s Day approaches, the probability could experience further changes depending on legislative developments.

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