Walsh Cautious QT – Liquidity Outlook

**“Cautious Shrink” – Decoding the Fed's Next Liquidity Chapter**

When a Fed voice says “cautiously shrink the balance sheet” in 2026, traders hear: we’re not trying to engineer another 2019 repo mess.

Translation:
- Runoff pace likely slows before reserves hit stress levels.
- TGA refill after tax season could add natural liquidity.
- No aggressive QT = softer dollar, better risk mood.

Crypto historically breathes easier when Fed liquidity fear fades.

Do you expect a QT pause announcement by Q2 2026? Vote in comments.

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