Benjamin Cowen's Bitcoin Warning: Why BTC Keeps Losing to Stocks

When analyst Benjamin Cowen weighed in on Bitcoin’s recent performance, he didn’t mince words. “Bitcoin’s likely going to keep bleeding against the stock market,” Cowen stated, a stark assessment that cuts through the noise of endless market optimism. As of early February 2026, his analysis hits harder than ever: with BTC trading at $67.71K (down 26.63% over the past month), Bitcoin has become increasingly volatile against traditional equity markets, defying its supposed role as a safe haven asset.

The data paints a sobering picture. Gold has reached new all-time highs at $5,608, while silver approaches record territory at $121. Bitcoin, meanwhile, sits significantly lower—and this isn’t just a matter of price levels. It’s about behavior. While gold and precious metals are acting as traditional safe havens during risk-off periods, Bitcoin is trading like a speculative tech stock, dumping when risk appetite fades rather than holding its ground as digital gold supposedly should.

Cowen Calls It Straight: The Gold Rotation Fantasy

Benjamin Cowen’s skepticism extends beyond just price action. He directly challenges the popular theory that gold’s rally will trigger a massive capital reallocation into crypto—the so-called “gold-to-Bitcoin rotation” that many bulls have been betting on. According to Cowen, that scenario is “probably not going to happen” in the short term. This matters because the theory has been central to bullish arguments for months: if safe havens like gold are strengthening, shouldn’t risk assets like Bitcoin eventually follow?

The Fear & Greed Index sits at historically low levels, reflecting extreme market fear. This suggests investors are in deep protection mode, which typically benefits safe havens like gold and silver over speculative assets. Citi’s recent forecast that silver could hit $150 within three months (driven by Chinese demand and weakening dollar pressures) only underscores how real money is flowing into traditional commodities rather than crypto.

The Bull Case: Could Bitcoin Still Bottom in February-March?

Not all analysts align with Benjamin Cowen’s pessimism. Pav Hundal from Swyftx presents a contrarian setup: “We’re right on the cusp of where we’d traditionally expect to see re-risking back into Bitcoin.” His analysis hinges on a historical pattern: Bitcoin bottoms typically lag gold’s strength by approximately 14 months. Using this model, the potential bottom lands in February or March 2026—precisely where we are now.

“If history repeats, and it is a big if, the gold-Bitcoin dynamic points to a potential BTC bottom forming over the next 40 days,” Hundal suggests. Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch adds credibility to the bullish setup, noting that Bitcoin is currently “trading at a steep discount to gold.” He characterizes such setups as “very rare,” positioning Q1 2026 as a potential inflection point.

The critical difference: While Benjamin Cowen focuses on what Bitcoin isn’t doing (acting as a safe haven), these optimists focus on what history suggests it could do (recover as risk appetite normalizes).

The Current Reality: Bitcoin Trading Like Tech, Not Digital Gold

Here’s the uncomfortable truth both sides must confront: Bitcoin was supposed to be digital gold. A safe haven. An inflation hedge. Right now, it’s acting like a speculative tech asset that collapses when risk appetite fades. Gold is performing its historical role. Bitcoin isn’t.

This creates a binary outcome. Either the historical lag pattern plays out over the next 40 days and Benjamin Cowen’s bears get proven wrong, or the fundamental narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven fails its first real stress test. The timeline is tight—we’ll know within weeks whether Hundal’s February-March bottom prediction holds or whether Cowen’s warnings about continued underperformance prove prophetic.

The market has given us a clear deadline. Either Bitcoin reclaims its role as a non-correlated hedge, or the entire bull thesis needs serious reconsideration.