Non-farm data "surged" and dealt a heavy blow to March rate cut hopes; crypto bulls face $470 million liquidation

February 12, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a “non-farm nuclear bomb” last night, completely destroying the market’s last hope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term.

Data released on February 11, 2026 (Eastern Time) showed that U.S. non-farm employment added 130,000 jobs in January, far exceeding economists’ expectations of 55,000 to 70,000, and nearly tripling the December figure of 48,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, and hourly wage growth also exceeded expectations.

This “all-around” strong labor market report dealt a heavy blow to traders betting on the Fed “pivoting early.” As a leading global digital asset trading platform, Gate observed that market sentiment rapidly reversed within minutes of the data release. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate cut in March plummeted from 20% to 6%, and bets on three rate cuts for the year were also cut in half. On the other side of the ocean, Bitcoin and Ethereum, with two massive 4-hour red candles, priced in the “collapse of rate cut faith.”

Labor Market “Counterintuitive” Strength, Rare Disagreement Between White House and Wall Street

What makes this non-farm report special is not only the numbers themselves but also the macro context in which it occurred.

Just before the data was released, White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese warned that “U.S. job growth will slow,” and some institutions even predicted that January’s data might turn negative due to California wildfires and extreme cold weather. However, the actual results slapped all “dovish” forecasts: the 130,000 new jobs were almost entirely from healthcare and social assistance sectors, with construction contributing an additional 33,000 jobs.

Dramatically, although President Trump immediately posted on Truth Social calling for “America to have the lowest interest rates in the world,” his confidant Deese’s dovish stance that “the Fed still has ample room to cut rates” appeared powerless in the face of the scorching employment data. Traders on Polymarket put their money where their mouth is—probability of no rate cut in June jumped from 31% to 37%.

This rift between White House political demands and market objective logic will be the biggest macro uncertainty in the crypto market for the rest of 2026.

Crypto Market’s Stress Reaction: Gold and Bitcoin Rarely Diverge

After the non-farm data was released, risk assets expressed disappointment with a “free fall.”

According to real-time data from Gate terminal on February 12:

• Bitcoin (BTC): trading at $67,495. It attempted to break the $69,000 resistance yesterday but plunged over $3,000 within an hour of the data release, touching a low near $65,800. Currently, it is oscillating around $67,500, still under the 30-day moving average on the daily chart.
• Ethereum (ETH): trading at $1,990. The trend is weaker than BTC, briefly dropping below the $1,900 mark after the data, causing the psychologically important $2,000 level to be lost again.
• Solana (SOL): trading at $81, down 3.4% in 24 hours, with the leading altcoin’s decline evident.

Intense one-way volatility triggered massive liquidations. Data from Coinglass shows that over the past 24 hours, 147,000 traders were liquidated across the network, with total liquidation exceeding $470 million, mostly from reckless long positions chasing the rally.

A noteworthy signal is that gold did not fall due to delayed rate cuts—instead, it rose 1.3% to around $5,100. This pattern of “Bitcoin following US stocks down, gold strengthening alone” suggests that the current driving logic of the crypto market has shifted from “inflation-hedging digital gold” to “a global liquidity arbitrage tool.” Before the Fed reopens the floodgates, BTC is unlikely to break out into a standalone bull market.

Bright Spot in the Stockpile Game: Conservative Trading Strategies as Safe Havens

The more extreme the macro environment, the more it tests the comprehensive strength of trading platforms.

Amid widespread market despair, Gate once again demonstrated a strong “risk-avoidance magnetism.” According to the latest data from DefiLlama, over the past 24 hours, Gate saw net inflows exceeding $17.81 million. This indicates that when professional investors judge that macro conditions are unlikely to turn in the short term, they prefer to shift assets to top-tier platforms with robust risk controls and deep product lines for strategic positioning.

This trend is closely linked to Gate’s recent fundamental developments. The January transparency report shows that Gate’s derivatives market share has risen to 11%, with perpetual contract trading volume maintaining a high level of $193 billion in Q4 last year; meanwhile, Gate’s TradFi business has accumulated over $20 billion in trading volume since launch, covering metals, forex, stock indices, and more. When speculative, one-sided markets retreat, multi-asset allocation capabilities become the platform’s core moat.

Outlook: June Rate Cuts Still the Baseline, Bitcoin at $65,000 Must Not Be Missed

While the non-farm data was strong, it is not the end of the story.

We must acknowledge a contradiction masked by the “over-the-top data”: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics sharply revised down the 2025 full-year non-farm job growth to 181,000 (initial estimate was 584,000), meaning the strong employment in the past year was essentially a “false boom.” As the lagging effects of high interest rates propagate, the job market could see a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year.

Gate’s analyst team believes the market is currently in the first phase of “expectation gap correction”:

1. Short-term (March-April): Rate cut expectations are suppressed to the lowest point, with BTC oscillating mainly between $65,000 and $70,000. If the price effectively breaks below $65,000 (some technical analyses today see this as a lifeline for bulls), it could retest the $60,000 support level.
2. Mid-term (June-July): As core PCE and Q1 GDP slowdown, the market will reprice the June rate cut. Currently, CME shows about a 60% chance of a rate cut in June, leaving room for a mid-year rebound.

For traders, the current strategy should be “antifragile”: as several veteran traders at Gate point out, before the daily MACD forms a golden cross, controlling leverage within 3x and focusing on the defense of $65,000 for Bitcoin and $1,900 for Ethereum is more practical than trying to predict the bottom.

After the non-farm report, the world has not changed overnight; the tide just receded faster than expected. Before the Fed truly pivots, preserving capital remains the best gift for rational investors from Gate.