Uniswap surges 40% then retraces 26%: BlackRock news sparks market movement, whales sell-off suppresses rally

On February 12, 2026, according to Gate market data, Unicorn Coin (UNI) is currently trading at $3.4, with a 24-hour trading volume of $22.52 million and a market cap of approximately $2.16 billion. In the past 24 hours, UNI’s price has changed by +4.19%, despite a seven-day decline of -8.73%, but this did not overshadow the thrilling bulls and bears showdown from the previous day.

A Single News, Two Long Wicks: From “Institutional Bull” to “Whale Gate”

Looking only at the current calm quote of $3.4, it’s hard to imagine the rollercoaster Uniswap experienced 48 hours ago.

On February 11, Beijing time, the world’s largest asset management firm BlackRock dropped a bombshell: not only did it deploy its $1.8 billion tokenized government bond fund BUIDL onto UniswapX, but it also made its first direct purchase of Uniswap’s native token UNI. Following the announcement, Uniswap surged 40%, reaching a high of $4.57 on the same day.

However, the celebration lasted only a few hours. On-chain data tracking revealed that, as retail FOMO sentiment ignited, large whales began executing precise distribution plans. According to analyst Yuchen Monitoring, an address quickly transferred 3.65 million UNI (worth about $13.43 million) to exchanges after the price soared. Even larger selling pressure came from major holders with around 648 million tokens—selling nearly 5.95 million tokens in a single day, directly removing about $27 million in buyer liquidity.

This is a classic script dominated by news-driven sentiment, institutional tone-setting, whale profit-taking, and retail standstill.

Exclusive Gate Data Analysis: When the “BlackRock Halo” Meets the “Historical Massive Lock-up Zone”

As of February 12, 2026, UNI’s circulating supply is 633.89 million, with a total supply of 899.23 million. The fully diluted market cap is $3.06 billion, with the current market cap accounting for 63.39%. Market sentiment has shifted from neutral to cautious.

We examined UNI’s 12-hour chart and on-chain token distribution, revealing three key facts:

First, a breakout with no volume, a rise with no strength. The bullish candle on February 11 appears strong but leaves a very long upper wick. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator did not hit new highs when the price reached $4.57, instead showing a divergence. This indicates that active buying has not truly overwhelmed the market; the rally is more a reaction to short covering and programmed market orders.

Retail participation drove this rally, source: TradingView

Second, whales precisely positioned at historical accumulation zones. The $4.5–$4.6 range coincides with the neckline of the M-top pattern formed by UNI in mid-January 2026. Large whales did not choose to sell at $3.5 or $4.0 but instead placed sell orders of tens of millions of tokens near $4.57. This is not coincidence but a strategic move to exploit the transient siphoning effect of BlackRock’s news to find optimal counterparties.

Uniswap price structure, source: TradingView

Third, retail sentiment and large holder behavior are severely diverging. While social media is filled with “BlackRock is entering DeFi,” smart money is hedging downside risk with 10x leverage. As of press time, UNI has fallen back to $3.4, completely retracing all gains triggered by BlackRock’s news, even dropping below the pre-news level of $3.45.

Uniswap whale activity, source: Santiment

From DeFi Governance Tokens to “Institutional Balance Sheet Assets”

Although the short-term price has settled, we should not simply categorize this event as a “bullish signal exhausted.”

Long-term, UNI’s value capture has been limited to protocol governance and liquidity incentives. However, BlackRock’s move marks a milestone: it is the first time a traditional financial giant has strategically allocated DeFi protocol tokens as “technological infrastructure equity,” rather than merely engaging in secondary market speculation.

Details such as Securitize’s 18-month communication with Uniswap Labs and the BUIDL fund being open only to accredited investors (assets over $5 million) indicate that institutions are not acting impulsively but testing a closed-loop of “tokenized US bonds + AMM liquidity + governance token incentives.”

This suggests that future demand for UNI will undergo structural changes: beyond traders, compliant entities holding interest-bearing assets and governance exposure on their balance sheets will become new marginal buyers.

Price Forecast and Key Level Watch (Gate Research Institute)

Based on Gate market data and on-chain derivatives holdings, we provide an objective, non-investment scenario analysis for UNI:

• Short-term support and resistance:

UNI currently faces a liquidity vacuum between $3.52 and $3.68. Short-term support is at $3.22 (24-hour low). If this level breaks, the price could further test the $2.80 zone—corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the February 11 rally point.

• Mid-term price outlook (2026):

Assuming BUIDL’s daily trading volume on UniswapX can stabilize above $50 million and macro interest rates do not tighten further, UNI may retest the $4.33 resistance in the second half of 2026. The annual average price is estimated at $3.41, with a likely trading range between $2.66 and $4.33.

• Long-term valuation (2031):

Based on the compounded growth model of DeFi penetration and tokenized RWA assets on-chain, if Uniswap captures more than 5% of traditional asset market-making share, UNI’s price center could migrate to $7.11. This represents a potential nominal return of approximately +84.00% compared to current levels.

Conclusion: Returning to the “Cold Test” of Liquidity Fundamentals

The story of UNI surging 40% on BlackRock news has come to an end. It leaves the market with not just a lesson in chasing momentum but a deeper question: when Wall Street with trillions of dollars knocks on DeFi’s door, will native tokens become liquidity pools for institutions to dump, or truly serve as value tokens connecting off-chain and on-chain worlds?

The answer does not depend on when BlackRock releases its next press release but on whether Uniswap can turn the “institutional experiment” with BUIDL into sustainable protocol revenue within the next 12 months. Until then, every pulse driven by news should be cautiously viewed by Gate users as an opportunity for risk management rather than an emotional excuse.