PCR Shift and Expiry Effects: Bitcoin Loses Value During Monthly Expiry

The markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum are at a critical juncture. A large-volume options expiration is approaching—and traders are increasingly adopting a defensive stance. With Bitcoin at just $67,410 and Ethereum at $1,950, it shows how far prices are from key pain points. The options ratio signals hidden market tensions that could explode during the upcoming expiration.

Bullish Positions Amid Falling Bitcoin Price: The Options Signal Warns

The options market tells a story between the lines. Bitcoin has 61,437 open call contracts compared to only 29,648 puts—resulting in an options ratio of 0.48. Despite the massive price decline, traders remain overall bullish. The same is true for Ethereum, where the options ratio is 0.70, indicating a more balanced sentiment.

However, this picture is deceptive. Deribit analysts report increased demand for hedges against falling prices. The January options expiration accelerates these hedging purchases. Over 91,000 open Bitcoin contracts amplify enormous leverage—an explosive mix for swings around psychological price levels.

Expiration Effects Worsen Liquidity Crises: Volatility Drops, Risks Rise

On the macroeconomic side, little is moving. Implied volatility continues to decline, the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are rising. Beneath this calm surface, significant risks are emerging. Greeks.live documents massive institutional outflows from exchanges—an indication of liquidity pressure across the entire crypto market.

The options expiration further intensifies these movements. Traders expect prices to gravitate toward pain points before expiration—$90,000 for Bitcoin remains a clear resistance. As volatility decreases, every micro-movement is magnified by leveraged positions.

Hedge or Wait for the Breakout?

Many market participants are preparing for chaotic days around the expiration. The lack of confidence is evident in the fact that traders have been buying protection against losses for weeks—regardless of whether Bitcoin is moving sideways. The upcoming expiration will reveal whether the options ratio signal is real or just nervousness.

Until then, the market remains trapped in the $67,000 to $90,000 range. A breakout up or down could be triggered by the expiration chaos—the trap is set, the weapon cocked.