Kalshi trading volume continues to hit new highs. What is a reasonable pre-market stock price?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

During market downturns, prediction markets have become the most eye-catching sector in the crypto market. In early February, during a market crash, BTC and ETH once fell over 10%, but trading activity in prediction markets remained vigorous, with weekly transaction counts reaching 26.39 million, a new record. Meanwhile, as the largest compliant prediction market platform in the U.S., Kalshi also surged to the top of the sector in January this year with over $9.5 billion in trading volume, setting a monthly transaction record. This was followed by a new round of market pricing for Kalshi’s pre-market stock prices.

Today, we want to discuss—what should be the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi, which is expected to become the “first prediction market stock”?

Looking at the current pricing of tokenized trading platforms for coins and stocks: PreStocks, Jarsy

As of writing, there is a clear price discrepancy between the two major tokenized trading platforms for Kalshi stocks:

On PreStocks, the pre-market price of Kalshi stock includes two prices—

One is the token price implied by the market’s liquidity-based valuation, approximately $369 per share;

The other is the calibrated price based on the capital valuation (current funding valuation), approximately $364 per share.

On Jarsy, the pre-market price per share has already risen to about $504.

It’s worth noting that compared to our previous article “Kalshi Pre-market Stock Price Soaring, Is It Still a Good Time to Buy?”, the pre-market prices on these two platforms have fluctuated to some extent. The prices at that time were:

On PreStocks, the implied market cap for Kalshi was about $14 billion, with a per-share price of around $407;

On Jarsy, the market valuation was $11 billion, with a per-share price of $450.

In other words, the price on PreStocks dropped from $407 to about $369, while on Jarsy, it increased from $450 to about $504.

By comparison, the pre-market stock prices in traditional financial markets for Kalshi have also changed—

On Nasdaq Private Market, the per-share price rose from about $307 to around $320;

On Hiive, the per-share price increased from about $357 to approximately $358.

Reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi: approximately $320–$423

Last year, Kalshi completed a Series E funding round of $1 billion, with a valuation of $11 billion.

Based on the above-mentioned market cap and corresponding stock prices, the total number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.30 million.

Specifically, the share count is calculated as follows—

Using a $11 billion valuation and the traditional market pre-market prices of $320 and $358, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.37 million;

Using the implied market cap/token price and capital valuation/calibrated price from PreStocks, the share count is about 34.27 million to 34.30 million;

Using the pre-market purchase price on Jarsy, with a maximum market cap of $18.665 billion and a per-share price of $604.84, the share count is approximately 30.86 million.

Based on this information, we can make the following inferences:

First, with a valuation of $11 billion, the reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $320–$358, meaning that current prices on crypto tokenized trading platforms like PreStocks and Jarsy are relatively high.

Second, Kalshi’s trading volume in January reached $9.5 billion, close to the estimated $10 billion size of the prediction market overall in October last year. At that time, Kalshi’s market share was about 50% of the prediction market. Based on this, Kalshi’s current market valuation is at least over $15 billion.

Third, based on a $15 billion valuation and the share count range, the pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $436–$488.

Therefore, if the share count aligns with expectations and assuming a $15 billion implied market cap, the conservative estimate for Kalshi’s pre-market stock price is around $320–$378 (averaging the lowest end of the pricing range). An optimistic estimate would be around $358–$423 (averaging the highest end).

Based on these data, Jarsy’s pre-market price for Kalshi appears overvalued, while PreStocks presents some arbitrage opportunities.

Additionally, the latest tokenized trading platform Tessera plans to open equity public offerings in the future, which readers can consider as an alternative (invitation code here).

Combining this with previous information from Odaily Planet Daily’s article “Data Calculation: Polymarket’s Annual Revenue Over $100 Million Is Not Difficult, Provided That…”, the following is relevant:

Based on the trading volume and fee ratio of the “15-minute crypto price rise and fall” market on Polymarket, a static estimate suggests that, under current trading volume and structure, if Polymarket introduces similar fee models across all markets, it could generate annual revenue of approximately $418 million.

As a prediction market platform with larger trading volume and higher fees, and considering the upcoming sports event year in 2026, Kalshi’s annual revenue is expected to surpass the estimated revenue of Polymarket. Consequently, the future capital market may further elevate Kalshi’s pre-market stock price.