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【February 11 Meteorological Center Emergency Briefing】
Chief Analyst: Eudora Qi
【Nine Key Meteorological Indicators】
Climate Attribute: The narrative of BTC as "Digital Gold" is under challenge; Grayscale reports suggest it is more like a "high-risk growth asset."
Sentiment Pressure: The panic index drops to 11, entering the "Extreme Panic" zone.
On-Chain Liquidity: On-chain transfers of Ethereum are surging downward, possibly indicating concentrated sell pressure release.
Derivatives Trends: Exchange funding rates turn negative across the board, market consensus remains bearish.
Stablecoin Levels: Tether destroys 3.5 billion USDT within an hour, indicating short-term liquidity adjustment.
Emerging System: Prediction markets combined with social trading are forming a new "playful" trend.
Macro Monsoon: The Federal Reserve has nearly an 80% probability of holding steady in March (policy stability), but officials hint that high interest rates may persist (liquidity cold wave).

【Indicator Correlation and Main Judgment】
Core Contradiction: The macro environment is a "high-interest-rate cold wave," which coincides with the new expectation that "BTC may shift toward growth stocks," creating medium-term suppression.
Short-term Energy: The market shows a resonance of "extreme sentiment (panic 11) + derivatives being uniformly bearish (rates turning negative)," which conditions a high-probability technical rebound.
Conclusion: The market is in a complex window of "medium-term macro adversity" and "short-term rebound momentum accumulation." Strategies should leverage short-term rebounds to manage positions and stay alert to the medium-term cold wave.

【Three-Level Direction Adjustment Instructions】
Capture Short-term Opportunities: Use the classic rebound signals of "Panic Index 11 + funding rate turning negative" with small positions and strict stop-loss to participate in potential technical rebounds—consider this a tactical adjustment, not a trend reversal.
Focus on Quality: Reassess the "BTC growth stock" narrative; in the context of the "high-interest-rate cold wave," reduce exposure to high-valuation assets without cash flow support, and tilt toward assets with actual income or moat (such as ETH).
Look Long-term: Observe on-chain activity to verify if sell pressure is waning; explore new trends like "social prediction markets" to prepare for the next cycle.
Summary: Capture short-term opportunities, emphasize quality, and adjust expectations.

【Verification and Action】
Core Logic Quick Question: Which two indicator combinations provide the strongest signals for a "technical rebound"?
A. Narrative shift + rate stability
B. Panic Index 11 + funding rates turning negative
C. USDT destruction + socialized prediction markets

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I am Chief Analyst Eudora Qi.
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