Breakout of 71,000: Continuation of the Trend or a Trap for a Fakeout?

BTC has retaken the $71,000 level, which is essentially a critical zone of contention. This level serves as both a psychological barrier and a region of previous heavy trading. If it can stabilize above this level, it indicates that a large amount of trapped positions have been digested, and the market structure may shift from a "rebound" to a "trend continuation." However, if it repeatedly falls below, it could evolve into a secondary pullback after a false bullish signal driven by sentiment.

From the market structure perspective, this rally is more driven by liquidity rather than a full return of risk appetite. The phase weakness of the US dollar index and the decline in US Treasury yields provide windows for risk assets, but these windows are usually temporary rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle. Therefore, BTC's upward movement is more like riding the wind rather than having its own engine.

Regarding trend judgment, I lean toward a "volatile but biased to the upside." In the short term, it may continue to test the upper liquidity levels, but the probability of a direct new high is low. A healthier pattern would be oscillating at high levels with a rising center of gravity. Only if there is a volume breakout accompanied by altcoin rotation will the trend confirmation significantly improve.

On the strategic level, blindly chasing high at this point is not cost-effective. A more reasonable approach is to wait for a pullback confirmation to buy on dips. A true bull market never offers just one entry point.

Macroscopically, non-farm payrolls and CPI will directly influence rate cut expectations, thereby affecting dollar liquidity; geopolitical events and elections influence risk appetite. Short-term volatility is unavoidable but will not determine the trend alone.

In one sentence: The bias is to the upside, but the rhythm is choppy, and the key depends on volume and the sustainability of funds. #比特币反弹