#近期加密市场观察

Today marks my 600th day of posting updates without a single break. Every post is prepared with care, not just rushed. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can walk with me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me so you don’t have to look hard. [微笑][微笑]

How severe is this drop? Looking at the timeline and magnitude, the last bull market saw a decline of about 370 days, with a drop of only 77%. This round has only been down for a little over 100 days, but the decline has already reached 54%. There’s no more downward space left, and currently, the market sentiment is extremely panicked. The more panicked we are, the more we need confidence. The last cycle’s drop was after a bubble burst, but this time, there’s no bubble at all. Prices are falling and can’t go lower. During the last cycle, when Bitcoin dropped, altcoins fell 10x or even 100x. This time, altcoins are falling at the same rate as Bitcoin.

Characteristics of retail investors:
They sell a little when prices go up, panic when prices go down, and lack a unified expectation. Shakeouts are just stress tests: hit once to see who panics first. Shake sideways to see who has no patience. Oscillate back and forth to see who has the worst mentality. When retail investors leave, trading volume shrinks and volatility lessens. The big players know exactly what’s happening: “Everyone who’s going to leave has left, and only then can the market be cleaned up.” So, one purpose of shakeouts is to clear out floating profits, trapped positions, and short-term funds. The subsequent rise is where the real profit space belongs to the big players. The big players never want everyone to hold stocks; they want no one to move recklessly. They’re not afraid of you understanding the data; they’re afraid of you following the rhythm. That’s why they use oscillations, fake breakouts, and fake dips to shake out those watching the market and leave the inactive investors behind.