Shanghai Brother Mi Ge's Cryptocurrency Analysis and Trading Strategy for the Evening of February 7:

Hello brothers and sisters, I am Shanghai Brother Mi Ge. I have been involved in cryptocurrency for ten years. Here is a summary of the market and trading strategies for tonight, for reference only. The final decision should be based on your specific situation:

I. Positive News in Cryptocurrency (February 7)

1. Violent rebound to repair sentiment: BTC surged up to 13% in one day, returning to $71,000; ETH up over 11%, surpassing $2,030, quickly easing panic sentiment.

2. Institutional bottom-fishing: BISAFU fund used $250 million in stablecoins to buy 3,600 BTC, and published reserve proof, supporting prices with institutional buying.

3. US stock market linked strength: US stock crypto ETF (BETH) soared 11.08%, traditional funds flowing into the crypto sector.

4. Technical oversold rebound: BTC reversed in a V-shape from around $60,000, ending short-term sell-offs and initiating a bullish attack.

II. Negative News in Cryptocurrency (February 7)

1. Regulatory tightening (domestic): Eight departments including the Central Bank jointly issued a document declaring virtual currency trading, mining, and payments as illegal financial activities, halting all domestic trading.

2. Aftermath of high-level liquidation: Nearly $2.242 billion liquidated globally in the past 24 hours, leverage funds still being de-leveraged, with extremely high volatility risk.

3. Fed nomination leaning hawkish: Trump nominated Waller (advocates for rate cuts + balance sheet reduction), strengthening the dollar and suppressing crypto risk assets.

4. Frequent security incidents: US Marshals' crypto wallet was hacked for $24.9 million, raising concerns over custody security.

5. Trend not reversed: BTC remains over 40% below its all-time high of 126,000; weekly/monthly charts still downward, rebound is a continuation of the downtrend.

III. Market Trend Analysis

Crypto Market Trend (February 7 evening, as of 20:30)

Summary: Short-term oversold rebound, medium-term bearish dominance, long-term no reversal.

1. Current Market Status (BTC/ETH/Market)

1) BTC: around $71,000, up 11% in 24h; from violent V-shape from $60,000, still down 44% from the all-time high of 126,000.

2) ETH: around $2,080, up over 10% in 24h; down 58% from the high of $4,900.

3) Market: total market cap $2.3 trillion; panic index from 9 (extreme panic) to 20 (panic); $2.242 billion liquidated in 24h, leverage de-leveraging ongoing.

2. Short-term rebound drivers (1-3 days)

1) Oversold repair: BTC from $70K to $60K and back to $70K within 48h, ending short-term sell-offs.

2) Institutional bottom-fishing: net inflow into spot ETFs, BISAFU buying 3,600 BTC.

3) US stock linkage: Dow breaks 50,000, tech stocks surge, risk appetite rises.

4) Technical: BTC stabilizes above $68,000, short-term bulls favored.

3. Medium-term resistance (1-2 weeks, dominant trend)

1) Hawkish Fed: Waller’s nomination (rate cuts + balance sheet reduction), dollar strengthening, suppressing risk assets.

2) Institutional deleveraging: January BTC ETF net outflow of over $3 billion, selling pressure persists.

3) Technical breakdown: weekly/monthly bearish alignment, rebound is a continuation of the downtrend.

4) Regulatory pressure: domestic eight departments fully ban, liquidity contracts.

5) Capital environment: pre-holiday global tightening, rebound unlikely to sustain.

4. Mi Ge’s cycle trend judgment

1) Short-term (1-3 days): oscillation rebound, quick in and out.

- BTC: support at $68,000/$64,000; resistance at $72,000/$75,000.

- ETH: support at $1,950/$1,900; resistance at $2,100/$2,200.

- Operation: go long with light spot positions, buy on dips, reduce positions on rebound; low leverage on futures, avoid heavy positions, set stop-loss and take-profit.

2) Medium-term (1-2 weeks): bearish dominance, reduce positions on rebounds.

- Core logic: deleverage + strong dollar + capital outflow, trend unchanged.

- Key observation: whether BTC can hold above $72,000 with volume; otherwise, revisit $60,000.

- Operation: significantly reduce on rebound at resistance levels, avoid chasing highs; mainly observe.

3) Long-term (1 month+): bear market confirmation, wait for right side.

- BTC halved from high, down for 4 consecutive months, longest decline since 2018.

- Bottom signals: ETF continuous net inflow, panic index back above 50, Fed explicit rate cuts, BTC stabilizes above $80,000 with volume.

- Operation: avoid bottom-fishing and left-side positioning, wait for clear reversal signals.

IV. Mi Ge’s Spot Trading Strategy

1. Position: spot ≤10%, ETH ≤5%.

2. Stop-loss: if BTC drops below $64,000 or ETH below $1,900, immediately close positions.

3. Take-profit: sell half at $72,000 and close at $75,000 for BTC; sell half at $2,100 and close at $2,200 for ETH.

4. Rhythm: quick in and out, no overnight full positions, avoid fighting rebounds.

V. Mi Ge’s Futures Trading Strategy

1. Daily BTC (weakly bearish)

- Weak volume, MACD death cross, RSI below 50 indicating oversold bearish.

- Support at $67,400, about $200 difference, go long; resistance at $71,700, about $200 difference, go short; stop-loss $1,000 away in opposite direction.

- Account 1: short-term 1% position, 100x leverage; Account 2: long-term 10%, 1x leverage.

2. Daily ETH (weakly bearish)

- Weak volume, MACD death cross, RSI below 50 indicating oversold bearish.

- Support at $1,995, about $5 difference, go long; resistance at $2,118, about $5 difference, go short; stop-loss $30 in opposite direction.

- Account 1: short-term 1%, 100x leverage; Account 2: long-term 10%, 1x leverage.

VI. Mi Ge’s Cryptocurrency Summary:

1. Overall today’s outlook: oscillating between bullish and bearish, slightly bearish.

2. No trading without stop-loss and take-profit; holding positions blindly is like a pig.

3. As long as the green mountains remain, there’s no need to worry about firewood.

4. Weak water of the three thousand, only take a ladle.

5. Flowing water does not compete to be first, only strives to be endless!