Bitcoin Could Reach $160 as Global Liquidity Returns in 2026: Macroeconomic Analysis

Macroeconomic analyst Raoul Pal has unveiled a striking valuation forecast for Bitcoin, projecting the world’s largest cryptocurrency could approach the $160 level during 2026 if global liquidity dynamics follow historical patterns. Currently trading around $69.20K with a 24-hour gain of 3.96%, Bitcoin’s present price suggests significant upside potential within the analyst’s framework. This bold projection emerges from Pal’s cross-referencing of global liquidity data, financial conditions, and historical correlations with technology markets, offering insight into how capital flows may reshape cryptocurrency valuations as monetary conditions normalize.

The 2025 Market Correction: Understanding the Liquidity Crunch

The cryptocurrency market experienced a severe contraction throughout 2025, driven primarily by a dramatic withdrawal of global liquidity from financial systems. This phenomenon disproportionately impacted risk assets positioned at the extreme end of the market’s risk curve. Highly speculative tokens sustained devastating losses ranging from 90% to 99%, while mid-tier projects declined between 50% and 65%. Even Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, recorded a near 40% decline over the period. Bitcoin, however, demonstrated superior resilience, maintaining relative stability and reinforcing its status as the most robust asset class within crypto markets. According to Pal’s analysis presented during an interview with fellow analyst Michael van de Poppe, this defensive performance does not necessarily indicate accurate pricing—rather, it reflects Bitcoin’s structural advantages during periods of liquidity stress.

The $160 Price Target: A Model-Driven Forecast

Pal’s valuation methodology compares Bitcoin’s current positioning to its implied fair value using macroeconomic models based on global liquidity indicators. The analysis reveals Bitcoin is trading significantly below what these models suggest its price should be if it maintained the same liquidity-driven correlation observed in technology stock markets, particularly the Nasdaq. According to this framework, Bitcoin’s theoretical price should hover near the $160 range—representing a substantial appreciation from current levels. This valuation gap emerged following a critical inflection point in October 2025, when a U.S. government shutdown coincided with large-scale selling pressure, market maker withdrawals, and operational disruptions across major exchanges. These converging factors triggered a structural sell-off that temporarily severed the typical correlation between Bitcoin, equities, and global liquidity metrics.

2026 Outlook: Positioning for Liquidity Recovery

Looking forward to 2026, Pal adopts an optimistic stance regarding cryptocurrency market conditions. His base case scenario assumes a confluence of supportive macroeconomic factors: declining interest rates, expanded fiscal stimulus measures, and potential regulatory frameworks that enhance capital flows through global financial systems. This environment typically favors assets most sensitive to liquidity conditions, creating fertile ground for broader cryptocurrency market recovery. Notably, early signals of this capital rotation are already visible in traditional assets such as gold and silver—historically reliable leading indicators of liquidity expansion cycles. Bitcoin emerges as the natural next stage in this capital reallocation process. Should global liquidity normalize throughout 2026 as Pal anticipates, the cryptocurrency could move substantially closer to the macroeconomic models’ $160 target, potentially justifying the significant valuation premium suggested by the analyst’s framework.