Ford's F Earnings Show Why It's Outpacing Tesla in 2026

With Q4 earnings season underway for the automotive sector, F earnings are drawing particular investor attention as Ford prepares to report results on February 10, while Tesla will announce its numbers shortly. The contrast between these two American auto powerhouses has rarely been starker, with F earnings set to underscore fundamentally different business trajectories heading into 2026.

Q4 Deliveries Paint Contrasting Pictures for Ford and Tesla

The numbers tell a striking story. Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025—down 16% year-over-year—falling short of analyst expectations by about 30,000 units. More troubling is the acceleration of the slowdown. While 2024 saw a modest 1% decline, 2025’s deliveries dropped more than 8%, signaling intensifying pressure on Tesla’s core EV business. The withdrawal of federal EV tax credits and aggressive competition from Chinese manufacturers have both weighed heavily.

Ford, by contrast, posted Q4 2025 sales exceeding 545,200 vehicles, up 2.7% year-over-year. More importantly, Ford’s market share expanded 0.9% in the period, bolstered by exceptional demand for hybrid vehicles. Hybrid sales surged 17.6% year-over-year to 55,374 units, demonstrating that consumers are rotating toward a different powertrain strategy than what Tesla has prioritized. This divergence is likely to be central to F earnings discussions when the company reports.

Ford’s Hybrid Pivot Powers Earnings Growth

The strategic shift toward hybrids is reshaping Ford’s competitive position. In 2025, Ford sold 2.2 million vehicles in the U.S.—its strongest annual performance since 2019—driven by strong truck and Mustang demand combined with surging hybrid interest. While the company faces $19.5 billion in special charges as it restructures its U.S. EV strategy, roughly $5.5 billion will impact cash flows primarily through 2026-2027, the company is essentially redirecting capital toward higher-margin vehicles and proven revenue drivers.

F earnings will reflect this transition. By scaling back aggressive EV investments and pivoting toward consumer demand, Ford is positioning itself for capital efficiency gains and improved profitability over the medium term. The Ford Pro commercial vehicle business continues to generate strong momentum, while emerging initiatives in autonomy, AI integration, and battery energy storage represent additional long-term growth vectors. The consensus estimate for Ford’s 2026 EPS has risen 6 cents over the past week to $1.54, implying 36% year-over-year growth—a testament to improving analyst confidence in this transition.

Tesla Faces Mounting Headwinds Despite AI Ambitions

Tesla’s Q4 performance, by comparison, reflects an aging product lineup competing against increasingly sophisticated rivals. CEO Elon Musk is pivoting toward autonomous driving and AI as the next growth engines, but these initiatives remain years away from generating meaningful revenue. While the company maintains an estimated $1.54 forward EPS for 2026, analyst estimates have declined 10 cents over the past month, suggesting rising skepticism about near-term execution.

The robotaxi market presents another headwind. Waymo currently leads in practical autonomous ride-hailing deployment, while Tesla’s ambitions remain largely in the testing phase. Bridging the gap from limited pilots to a revenue-generating network will require substantial time and capital investment, keeping near-term execution risks elevated.

Valuation Gap Widens Between the Two Auto Giants

From a pure valuation perspective, the disparity is striking. Ford trades at just 0.31x forward sales—a remarkable discount for a company with improving fundamentals. Tesla, by contrast, commands a 13.67x forward sales multiple, pricing in significant future growth that increasingly appears uncertain given current delivery trends and competitive pressures.

Additionally, Ford’s earnings momentum contrasts sharply with Tesla’s weakening analyst sentiment. Ford has beaten earnings expectations in four consecutive quarters, while Tesla has missed on three of the last four occasions. The Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating for Ford and Earnings ESP of +10.85% suggest the market expects another beat, whereas Tesla’s Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) reflects diminished conviction among analysts.

The Bottom Line: Why F Earnings Matter More

Heading into the financial reporting season, F earnings represent a cleaner investment thesis than Tesla’s uncertain turnaround story. Ford’s hybrid-centric strategy aligns with actual consumer demand rather than management bets on future technologies. The company’s strong cash position, improving profitability prospects, attractive valuation, and growing dividend yield all enhance shareholder value.

Tesla, while positioned as a technology leader, faces declining volumes, intensifying competition, and a stretched valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. Analysts are factoring in lower near-term earnings power, and the company’s AI and autonomy initiatives—though potentially transformative long-term—offer few catalysts for 2026 upside.

For investors evaluating which auto stock merits exposure, F earnings data underscores why Ford has become the more pragmatic choice. Ford is growing where consumers are buying (hybrids), maintaining capital discipline, and delivering solid financial results. That combination of fundamentals, valuation appeal, and positive momentum makes Ford the more compelling equity heading into the remainder of 2026.