What to Expect from Trump's Speech in Davos: Bitcoin and Markets Test Strength After Geopolitical Pressure

As geopolitical tensions continue to shape the behavior of risk assets, including bitcoin. While the crypto community awaits Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Bitcoin fluctuates near $78,000, reflecting a fundamental shift: instead of acting as a hedge against crises, BTC now behaves as a highly volatile technological asset, sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and global geopolitical volatility.

According to recent analysis by QCP Capital, Bitcoin’s momentum “has struggled to reestablish itself” as markets lose risk appetite. This transformation marks a significant deviation from Bitcoin’s traditional profile as a store of value. The current reality is that crypto remains reactive to macroeconomic movements, not directional.

Geopolitical Impact: The Lost Link Between Speech and Markets

Trump’s tariff threats directed at Greenland and European nations created a cascade effect in global markets. Europe has already signaled the suspension of trade agreement approvals, while US stocks fell by up to 2%, and the dollar came under downward pressure. The presidential speech in Davos this week gains amplified relevance: investors are closely watching for any indication of future trade policy.

The partial recovery of Japanese government bonds after significant declines earlier in the week provided some relief to risk assets. When authorities called for calm in fixed income markets, the effect spilled over into cryptocurrencies. However, this protective cushion proved fragile: the CoinDesk 20 index still declined by 2.22% in the last 24 hours, with Ethereum down 7.60% and Solana, Cardano showing similar movements.

Technical Analysis: Where Are the Supports?

Bitcoin faces a critical test at its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). On the weekly chart, the primary support is around $88,120. The rejection at the 50-week EMA signals that, in the absence of a clear breakout above this level, the market will likely continue oscillating between the resistance line (EMA) and the mentioned support.

Bitcoin’s hash rate remains relatively stable at $38.54, while the 7-day moving average hash rate reached 1,005 EH/s. These indicators suggest that the mining infrastructure maintains its robustness despite price volatility, providing a technical floor for the network.

Ether and Altcoins Movements: More Pronounced Drop

While Bitcoin retreats 4.41% in 24 hours to $78,010, Ethereum suffered even greater pressure, falling 7.60% to $2,360. This differential reflects the phenomenon documented by QCP Capital: higher beta assets (sensitivity to market swings) suffer more during risk aversion periods.

XRP shows a technical pattern reminiscent of February 2022, indicating possible additional selling pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, VeChain continues to update its ecosystem—this week, the network will host an X Spaces session to discuss recent developments, suggesting constructive movement despite the depressed market sentiment.

Mike Novogratz’s Perspective: Reflections on the Dollar’s Status

Galaxy Digital CEO and co-founder Mike Novogratz shared a critical view on social media. Observing gold’s rise, Novogratz argues that the US dollar is “losing its reserve currency status at an accelerated pace.” Paradoxically, he comments that Bitcoin’s performance remains “disappointing, still accompanied by ongoing sales.”

This observation encapsulates the current dichotomy: while dollar devaluation theses strengthen, Bitcoin does not fully benefit from this macro narrative due to short-term risk factors that shift it away from a safe haven role.

Events and Launches: Weekly Agenda

The week offers potential catalysts. VeChain will host a governance session to discuss the ecosystem. BNB Chain is in voting for the approval of five system parameters, aligning with the upcoming Fermi hard fork and activation of BEP-619, which will reduce block interval to 0.45 seconds.

In the launch segment, Seeker (SKR) enables claiming airdrops on Solana, while Plume will unlock 39.75% of its circulating supply (valued at $23.6 million). Summer.fi will hold its token generation event, and ETHGas will be listed on platforms like Binance Alpha, MEXC, and BingX.

ETF Flows: Significant Withdrawals Indicate Caution

Over-the-counter ETF flows clearly reflect cautious sentiment. Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net daily outflow of $479.7 million, with total inflows of $57.32 billion and total holdings of approximately 1.31 million BTC. Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, faced a daily net outflow of $230 million, with total inflows of $12.7 billion and holdings of about 6.21 million ETH.

These withdrawals amplify the “risk-off” narrative: institutional investors are scaling back exposure to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, in anticipation of political and macroeconomic movements.

Crypto Stocks: Widespread Decline Follows Volatility

Cryptocurrency-related company stocks are experiencing widespread declines. Coinbase Global (COIN) fell 5.57% to $227.73, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) dropped 6.44% to $32.10, while Riot Platforms (RIOT) declined 5.93% to $18.10. Core Scientific (CORZ), CleanSpark (CLSK), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) also show negative movements ranging from 2.81% to 7.52%.

Even MicroStrategy (MSTR), known for its crypto treasury strategy, recorded a 7.76% drop to $160.23. These movements reflect the growing correlation between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies during risk-off periods.

What to Watch in the Next Steps

Trump’s speech in Davos remains a key catalyst. Clarity on tariff positioning, regulatory policy for cryptocurrencies, or geopolitical movements could redefine market sentiment. Until explicit policy signals emerge, Bitcoin is expected to remain reactive to external macro drivers.

Technically, a breakout above the 50-week EMA would pave the way for sustained recovery. Conversely, a break below support at $88,120 could trigger further downward movements. Both traders and long-term investors will stay vigilant to developments this week, when political discourse and market dynamics converge.