Bitcoin closed the technical hurdle, while gold sets the market tone

The crypto markets closed this phase with remarkably positive signals. Bitcoin has not only broken through psychologically important resistance levels but also paints a technical picture that encourages many analysts to make optimistic forecasts. An unexpected ally played a key role: gold and other precious metals, which moved upward in parallel with Bitcoin, thereby rewriting an entire market narrative.

Technical signals point clearly upward

The recent development shows: Bitcoin has recently broken the $95,000 mark and closed at around $94,711, representing an increase of over 3% within 24 hours. From a technical perspective, this marks the end of an important phase. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, a clear path now appears to the range between $100,000 and $106,000, limited downward by the psychologically significant round number and upward by the 200-day moving average.

The charts themselves depict a strong picture: prices are trading well above the 50-day moving average and are at their highest level since mid-January. This technical configuration is interpreted by many market observers as bullish and suggests that the momentum could be sustained.

The Goldilocks scenario: neither too hot nor too cold

What makes this upward trend particularly interesting is the macroeconomic context. QCP Capital, a crypto analyst based in Singapore, emphasizes a so-called “Goldilocks” scenario – a balance between stable labor markets and moderate inflation, leading to increased risk appetite across the board. This scenario is characterized by capital flows not only into traditional assets but also targeted into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Of particular importance is the connection between the rise in precious metal prices and Bitcoin. Gold closed the observed period near its all-time high of $4,634, while silver reached a record over $91.50 per ounce. This is no coincidence: both assets are traditionally viewed as inflation hedges. The “relative supply-demand imbalance” in metals directs investors specifically toward digital alternatives – making Bitcoin a complementary, not competing, asset.

Derivatives market closes with pronounced optimism

The options market clearly reflects market participants’ expectations: on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, trading activity in call options with strike prices of $96,000, $98,000, and $100,000 closed extremely high. These bullish bets mirror the collective conviction that Bitcoin will break the six-figure mark in the foreseeable future.

The funding rate for Bitcoin on derivatives platforms is at 0.0066% (7.2051% annually), indicating moderate leverage exposure without signaling excessive risk. This paints a picture of a gradual, non-speculative upward trend.

Regulatory concerns: a shadow image

Not everything is painted positively. Galaxy Digital warned in a report about the Senate Crypto Bill, which could pave the way for significant expansions of financial oversight – potentially the largest since the Patriot Act. Such a scenario could give authorities the ability to freeze DeFi interfaces and block transactions.

This creates a dual image: on one hand, prices of privacy-focused tokens like Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) rose due to these concerns, showing that market participants take regulatory risks seriously. On the other hand, it also concludes an important discourse – whether crypto is viewed as a financial innovation or as a regulatory object.

Altcoins paint a fragmented picture

While Bitcoin dominated the headlines, an interesting chapter also closed in the altcoin segment: Ethereum rose about 5% to prices near $2,400, XRP increased similarly, as did Dogecoin and Cardano. Solana and BNB, however, lag behind – a sign of selective risk appetite rather than broad euphoria.

The CoinDesk Metaverse Select Index shows a particularly strong picture with an 11% increase, while the Culture & Entertainment Index rose by 8%. Meme coins recorded over 6% gains. Together, these data depict a market that is not caught up in individual coins but is broadly diversified.

Traditional markets: the extended picture

The overall picture is rounded out by traditional financial markets, which themselves showed a mixed-signal portrait. While US indices like the S&P 500 declined slightly (-0.19%), the Nikkei in Tokyo closed with +1.48%, significantly more positive. The US dollar weakened slightly, which is typically crypto-friendly. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell by 1.9 basis points to 4.152%.

Conclusion: a picture full of possibilities

The overall situation is characterized by a rare alignment of several positive factors: technical signals, macroeconomic good conditions, precious metals tailwinds, and high derivatives positions. Bitcoin has thus closed a phase that encourages analysts to be more optimistic. The $100,000 mark, which seemed impossible just months ago, now appears as a technically attainable target – both in terms of price action and the psychological readiness of market participants.

However, regulatory concerns warn against excessive euphoria. The picture emerging for the coming weeks will depend on whether crypto assets are recognized as a financial innovation or are subject to tighter regulation. Bitcoin will continue to depict both scenarios – as a winner in freedom scenarios, and as a defensive asset in regulatory scenarios.