Inflation in the US may exceed 4% and complicate the situation in the crypto market

A new study by leading economists warns of a resurgence of inflationary pressures in the US in 2026, contradicting the optimistic forecasts of cryptocurrency investors. According to analysis by Adam Posen from the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Peter R. Orszag from Lazard, consumer prices may rise above expected levels and exceed 4% this year, posing a serious test for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

The researchers dismantle the thesis of a deflationary trajectory that crypto bulls might rely on. Instead of a continuous decline in inflation in the US, economists point to a combination of factors capable of changing the direction of price pressures and leaving the Federal Reserve with less room to aggressively cut rates.

What factors are reigniting inflation in the US: from tariffs to labor shortages

Posen and Orszag highlight several key mechanisms for the resurgence of inflation in the US, which they assess outweigh positive factors. Chief among them are the tariffs from the Trump era on imports. Economists explain that importers, with some delay, pass increased costs to end consumers, smoothing short-term spikes but ultimately amplifying consumer price growth in the long run.

“By mid-2026, the pass-through of tariff costs should be substantially complete. This could add 50 basis points to the core inflation rate,” note the researchers. At the same time, tightening labor markets and potential large-scale deportations of migrants create a risk of labor shortages in critical sectors of the US economy, leading to higher wages and stimulating demand-driven inflation.

Additional factors include government spending potentially increasing the US fiscal deficit above 7% of GDP, and easing financial conditions along with unanchored inflation expectations heightening the risk of price pressures. All of this runs counter to the market consensus focused on declining inflation in the housing sector and productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.

Rising bond yields and risks for crypto assets

Growing concerns about inflation in the US are already reflected in the government bond market. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reached a five-month high of 4.31% earlier this week, mirroring the trend of rising yields on Japanese government bonds to historic highs. This movement makes traditional fixed-income instruments more attractive and, accordingly, reduces the relative appeal of risk assets.

Bitcoin has already responded to this dynamic, falling nearly 4% to $90,000 this week. The current BTC price is $88.31K, with a 24-hour decrease of 0.69%, according to the latest data. For investors who expected a quick rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a rally in the crypto market amid deflationary trends, this scenario presents a significant risk.

Many investment banks anticipated the Fed would cut the base rate by 50-75 basis points over the year, and crypto advocates expected even more aggressive actions. However, the resurgence of inflation in the US could significantly complicate the central bank’s ability to implement such aggressive rate cuts.

Artificial intelligence and productivity: enough to balance inflation?

Despite optimism about how productivity growth driven by AI could contain inflation, economists warn against overconfidence. Microsoft and Meta’s financial reports for Q4 2025 show that corporate spending on artificial intelligence continues to grow without signs of slowdown.

Microsoft emphasized that AI has become one of its largest business areas, while Meta forecasts a sharp increase in capital investments in 2026 to fund its ambitious Meta Super Intelligence labs. These trends suggest that the positive productivity effect may be delayed longer than traditional consensus assumes.

Analysts at Bitunix summarized the dilemma most accurately: the real risk of current policy lies not in premature easing, but in excessive caution following a sustained structural decline in inflation thanks to productivity gains, which could later lead to a sharper and more destructive correction. This explains why markets have begun to price in a “catch-up” scenario for the Fed’s policy.

The resurgence of inflation in the US thus challenges the core assumptions of crypto bulls regarding the trajectory of monetary policy and casts doubt on the rapid growth of risk assets in the short term. For the crypto market, this means reassessing expectations and adapting strategies in a more complex macroeconomic environment.