The gold price trend over the past 10 years suggests: a scenario of rising to $8,900 by the end of 2030

The gold market over the past decade has undergone dramatic changes. According to Incremence’s latest analysis, “In Gold We Trust,” the movement of gold prices over the last ten years reflects not just price increases but also structural shifts that mirror a reorganization of the global financial order. Projections for gold prices from 2025 to 2030 suggest that, under an inflation scenario, prices could reach $8,900 by the end of 2030.

Structural Changes in the Gold Market Seen from a Decade of History

The gold price trend over the past ten years indicates a shift from its traditional safe-haven status to a modern strategic asset. During this period, from 2015 to 2025, global gold prices increased by 92%. Meanwhile, the purchasing power of the US dollar declined by nearly 50%. This divergence carries significance beyond mere numerical price changes.

For a long time, gold was considered an outdated asset in Western financial systems that did not generate dividends. However, over the past decade, especially since 2022, this perception has fundamentally changed. According to central bank data, the world’s gold reserves reached 36,252 tons in 2024, accounting for 22% of total foreign exchange reserves—its highest level since 1997, more than doubling the 9% in 2016.

Last year, gold hit a record high in US dollar terms 43 times. As of April 30 this year, it has set 22 new highs. This frequency ranks second only to 1979’s 57 times, indicating that the gold market has entered a new phase.

Central Bank and Inflation Scenarios for Gold Price Rise

Several structural factors underpin the current trend in gold prices. First, a global financial reorganization is underway. Excessive US government debt, shifts in dollar dominance, and the rise of non-state credit assets are collectively boosting demand for gold.

Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, forming a key pillar of the bullish market. Notably, Asian central banks are leading this trend, with Poland becoming the largest purchaser in 2024. According to Goldman Sachs research, China is expected to continue buying gold at about 40 tons per month, with annual demand approaching 500 tons.

Inflation risk is also a significant factor. The M2 money supply of G20 countries has increased at an average annual rate of 7.4%, showing a renewed upward trend after three years of negative growth. Since 1900, US population has increased 4.5 times, while M2 has expanded by 2,333 times. This asymmetric expansion could be one of the most important long-term drivers of gold prices.

New Era Portfolio Strategies: The Role of Gold

Incremence recommends revising the traditional “60% stocks and 40% bonds” portfolio. The new allocation proposes 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% gold, 10% performance gold (silver, mining stocks, commodities), 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin.

Particularly noteworthy is the distinction between gold as a safe asset and performance gold (silver, mining stocks, commodities). Historical data shows that in 15 out of 16 bear markets from 1929 to 2025, gold outperformed the S&P 500, with an average relative performance of 42.55%. In stagflation environments, gold’s average real annual compound growth rate is 7.7%, while silver reaches 28.6%.

Looking ahead over the next decade, the role of gold is expected to become even more significant in the new monetary order. As dollar dominance wavers and a multipolar world order emerges, gold is likely to regain its status as a “supranational settlement asset.”

Price Forecast Scenarios for 2030

Incremence’s 2020 model projects two scenarios for gold prices. The baseline scenario estimates around $4,800 by the end of 2030, while the inflation scenario suggests around $8,900.

Current gold prices already exceed the $2,942 baseline target for 2025, indicating market leaning toward the inflation scenario. However, examining the past decade’s price movements reveals that several conditions are necessary for realization: continued geopolitical tensions, sustained central bank demand, and ongoing money supply expansion.

Referring to the historical “shadow gold price” (a fully backed gold scenario), with a 40% backing rate in 1914 under the Federal Reserve Act, the gold price would need to reach $8,566. Under the Bretton Woods system (25% backing) from 1945 to 1971, $5,354 was required. Currently, the M0 shadow gold price is $5,100 at 25% backing and $8,160 at 40% backing, making the $8,900 scenario above these historical benchmarks.

Risks and Market Adjustment Possibilities

While a bullish trend is expected to continue, short-term correction risks exist. According to Dow Theory’s three-phase analysis of a bull market, gold is currently in the “public participation phase.” This phase features optimistic media coverage, increased speculative interest, and new product launches.

In the short term, a decline to around $2,800, unexpected reductions in central bank demand, or a decrease in geopolitical premiums could trigger adjustments. However, the report suggests that such short-term corrections are part of the stabilization process of a bull market and do not threaten the long-term upward trend.

Historical data shows that corrections during bull markets typically range from 20% to 40%. Performance gold, such as silver and mining stocks, tends to experience larger corrections. Maintaining consistent risk management strategies is crucial for investors.

Gold Price Trends and the Future of Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin may also benefit from the ongoing reorganization of the global financial order. As of the first half of 2025, the market value of mined gold was approximately $23 trillion, compared to about $1.9 trillion for Bitcoin (roughly 8% of gold’s value).

Incremence suggests that Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market capitalization by the end of 2030. Assuming a conservative gold price of $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to about $900,000. While ambitious, this is not impossible given past performance.

The combination of gold and Bitcoin is seen as complementary—gold providing stability and Bitcoin offering convexity—potentially delivering better risk-adjusted returns than investing in either alone.

Conclusion: 10-Year Outlook for Gold Price Movement

The past decade of gold prices has served as a witness to the reorganization of the global financial order. Political and economic turmoil, inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and structural demand from central banks are collectively pushing gold from the periphery back into the core of markets.

The projected $8,900 by 2030 under the inflation scenario is a target aligned with the extension of the last ten years’ trend. As gold evolves from a “portfolio stabilizer” to a “trust asset,” its role in investor portfolios will fundamentally change. Amid declining confidence in existing currency systems, gold is likely to re-establish itself as a “supranational settlement asset,” reflecting these structural shifts in its price trajectory over the next decade.