#加密市场观察

Today marks my 589th consecutive day of posting updates. Not a single day missed. Every post is prepared with care, not just rushed. [微笑] If you think I am a serious person, you can follow me, and I hope the daily content can help you. The world is vast, and I am small. Follow me so you don’t have to look hard. [微笑][微笑]

The earliest Ethereum miners and early heavy holders of ETH, industry veterans with top-tier understanding of the sector and technology, all at a ceiling level. In the latter half of the bull market, they chose to reduce their holdings and exit too early, missing out on the main upward wave that followed. Looking back now, the opportunity cost isn’t a few million or tens of millions, but close to 5 billion RMB. This isn’t a matter of judgment ability; it’s a cycle plus human nature issue.

Many people think, “You’ve made so much already, aren’t you satisfied?” But the market never looks at your past achievements; it only cares whether you’ve followed the next main trend. The real cruelty is not that you don’t understand ETH or that you haven’t experienced major market moves, but that you chose to exit early when it was hardest to hold on. The most difficult part of a cycle is never buying, but selling! In the latter part of the market, it’s easy to be limited by your own “experience.”

Technology and human nature are two different things. Many in the crypto world don’t understand the blockchain space, and those in the blockchain space don’t understand crypto. Programmers don’t understand bosses, and bosses don’t understand programmers. Those who have truly benefited from a full cycle often understand a bit of both—technology without blind faith, human nature without being driven by emotions. That’s why I always emphasize cycles. It’s not because technology isn’t important, but because at the price level, cycles are more important than technology. To put it simply, the crypto world makes money from cycles, not from code.