What Jason Calacanis and Three Tech Billionaires Predict for 2026: Copper Surges, Oil Weakens, Crypto Reshapes Markets

On a recent episode of the “All-In Podcast,” four prominent venture capitalists and industry leaders—Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks—convened to discuss their investment thesis and market predictions for 2026. Calacanis, who hosts the show alongside Palihapitiya, Friedberg, and Sacks, helped steer a wide-ranging conversation that touched on politics, technology, commodities, and specific asset classes. Their collective insights reveal a bullish stance on certain industrial metals and emerging markets, combined with bearish outlooks on traditional energy and state-level fiscal stability.

The California Wealth Tax Shadow: A $500 Billion Wake-Up Call

The conversation opened with an urgent economic concern: California’s proposed wealth tax. Sacks, who recently relocated to Texas, explained that the state is collecting signatures to place the proposal on the 2026 ballot, requiring approximately 850,000 signatures. The group estimates that if the measure moves forward, it could trigger massive capital flight, with roughly half of California’s projected taxable wealth at stake. Palihapitiya acknowledged the paradox—publicly stating he would “stay and fight,” while simultaneously looking at properties outside the state. The hosts estimate that wealthy individuals who have already left California represent roughly $500 billion in combined net worth, a hemorrhage that threatens the state’s long-term fiscal health.

Sacks pointed out that even if the wealth tax fails the vote, the threat alone creates persistent uncertainty. The proposed 5% tax on unrealized stock gains could effectively bankrupt entrepreneurs with illiquid holdings. More alarmingly, for founders with super-voting control structures, the tax calculation method could inflate their perceived net worth significantly—turning a nominal 5% tax into a functional 25% to 50% levy. This mechanism, Sacks noted, likely drove prominent figures like Larry Page and Sergey Brin to consider leaving California. Polymarket, the prediction platform, previously estimated a 45% chance of the measure passing, but odds surged to 80% after politicians like Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders backed it.

Tech Giants’ Strategic Bets: Huawei, Polymarket, and the AI Revolution

When asked to select their top business picks for 2026, the four experts revealed sharply divergent but complementary outlooks. Friedberg championed Huawei, citing the company’s deepening partnership with SMIC and its aggressive chip development strategy. He predicted that Huawei’s performance would exceed Western expectations, positioning the Chinese tech firm as a significant player in global semiconductors. Friedberg’s second choice was Polymarket, the prediction market platform that has evolved from a niche trading venue into a broader media and insight tool. He forecasted explosive growth, especially following Polymarket’s partnership with the NYSE and anticipated integrations with platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Nasdaq.

Palihapitiya zeroed in on a fundamental commodity: copper. He highlighted copper’s universal utility across data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, and defense systems. At current consumption rates, he warned, the world faces a critical supply shortfall—approximately 70% below demand by 2040. This structural imbalance positions copper as an asset primed to “take off” in an era of geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain reshoring.

Sacks anticipated a dramatic reversal in the IPO market. After years of companies opting to remain private, he predicted 2026 would spark a massive shift, with trillions of dollars in new market capitalization flowing into public markets. He attributed this turnaround to the “Trump boom” and a restoration of confidence in public markets.

Jason Calacanis selected Amazon as his primary choice, citing the company’s pioneering role in corporate automation. He contended that Amazon would be the first major corporation where robots and automated systems generate more profit than human employees. Calacanis pointed to Amazon’s logistics subsidiary Zoox, which is making steady progress in autonomous vehicles, combined with massive warehouse automation in cities like Austin, where same-day delivery has become routine.

The Dark Side: Winners Turn to Losers

The group’s analysis of 2026’s business losers provided a sobering counterweight. Friedberg flagged state governments as the biggest victims, warning that mounting pension liabilities and exposed waste, fraud, and abuse would precipitate fiscal crises across the country. Palihapitiya targeted the enterprise SaaS sector, predicting that companies selling licensed software solutions to large corporations would hemorrhage revenue. While enterprises still require software, he reasoned, the AI revolution would collapse the economics of “maintenance” and “migration”—two revenue streams that currently account for 90% of SaaS company income.

Sacks doubled down on California itself, predicting that the wealth tax threat and regulatory overreach would accelerate the exit of businesses and capital. Calacanis identified young American white-collar workers as losers, noting that companies increasingly prefer to automate entry-level positions with AI rather than invest in training recent graduates. However, Friedberg introduced a cultural dimension, suggesting that hiring difficulties stem partly from generational shifts in work ethic and organizational skills among Gen Z workers—a phenomenon that may have originated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Transformative Deals and Contrarian Bets

The panel explored emerging deal structures likely to dominate 2026. Sacks pointed to a major breakthrough in coding assistants and tool-use platforms, predicting a surge similar to the chatbot boom of late 2022. Friedberg offered a geopolitical angle, predicting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would reach resolution in 2026, bringing greater regional stability. Palihapitiya introduced a novel thesis: IP licensing agreements would eclipse traditional M&A as corporations grapple with intensified antitrust scrutiny. Large-scale mergers are increasingly prohibited, he argued, forcing companies to pursue technology and talent through licensing deals instead—as exemplified by Google-Character.ai, Microsoft-OpenAI, and Nvidia-Grok collaborations.

Calacanis predicted a mega-deal exceeding $50 billion, involving one of the tech titans (Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon) acquiring an AI-focused startup. Despite many AI companies’ preferences to pursue IPOs, he contended that an irresistible acquisition offer would emerge. He further suggested that President Trump might instruct regulators to “make M&A great again,” a policy shift vital for maintaining American competitiveness.

The boldest contrarian predictions generated the most heat. Palihapitiya made two stunning calls: first, that SpaceX would merge into Tesla rather than pursuing an independent IPO, allowing Elon Musk to consolidate his two flagship companies under a unified ownership structure. Second, he proposed that central banks would pioneer a controlled crypto asset paradigm to replace gold and Bitcoin—a quantum-resistant, sovereign-controlled digital currency that cannot be easily surveilled by rival nations or allies. This move, he suggested, reflects central banks’ recognition of gold’s limitations and Bitcoin’s volatility.

Sacks invoked the Jevons paradox to argue that AI would increase, not decrease, the demand for knowledge workers. As the cost of code generation falls, society will create exponentially more software, requiring larger development teams. Similarly, declining scan costs would proliferate radiological imaging, necessitating more radiologists to interpret AI-generated results. The unemployment narrative, he insisted, misses the job creation upside.

Friedberg predicted that Iran’s regime collapse would destabilize, rather than stabilize, the Middle East. While many view Iran as a destabilizing force, he argued Iran actually provides equilibrium. Its removal would trigger fresh power struggles among regional actors (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar), especially after a two-state Palestinian solution. The aftermath, he suggested, would be worse than anticipated.

Which Assets Will Soar and Which Will Crater

For 2026’s best-performing assets, Friedberg reiterated Polymarket, citing its exploding network effects and replacement of traditional media functions. Palihapitiya championed a basket of critical metals, anchored by copper’s structural demand surge. Sacks selected the tech sector’s expansionary supercycle, confident that a favorable macroeconomic environment would fuel gains. He noted that the Atlanta Fed’s latest forecast pegged Q4 GDP growth at 5.4%, with Palihapitiya suggesting the full-year rate could reach 5% to 6.2%—a remarkable achievement under democracy and capitalism.

Calacanis, observing that consumers would have spare cash in a booming economy, wagered on speculative and gambling platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. He reasoned that retail investors would redeploy excess capital into high-risk, high-reward bets.

The worst performers tell an equally stark story. Sacks highlighted California luxury real estate, expecting intense selling pressure as the wealth tax threat looms. Palihapitiya predicted oil and hydrocarbons would suffer irreversible decline, driven by electrification and energy storage trends. He projected oil prices falling to $45 per barrel rather than rebounding to $65. Friedberg targeted Netflix and traditional media stocks, reasoning that Netflix’s harsh content creator terms (cost plus 10%) would alienate top talent, forcing the company to pursue acquisitions or face a shrinking content library. Independent creators and citizen journalism, he noted, are dismantling traditional media’s dominance.

Calacanis selected the US dollar, citing exploding national debt and potential 50% military budget increases. These fiscal pressures threaten the dollar’s value, driving investors toward commodities like gold, silver, and copper.

The Political Reckoning: Winners and Losers in 2026

The political landscape will undergo seismic shifts, the group agreed. Friedberg pinpointed the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) as the biggest political winner, claiming the movement is taking over the Democratic Party just as MAGA reshaped the GOP. Palihapitiya selected anyone committed to combating waste, fraud, and abuse, predicting this anti-corruption stance would prove politically potent. Sacks touted the “Trump Boom” as the defining winner, pointing to falling inflation (2.7%), solid Q3 GDP growth (4.3%), trade deficit at 2009 lows, and mortgage savings of approximately $3,000 per household. He forecasted 75 to 100 basis point interest rate cuts by June and a wave of tax refunds in April, all of which would reshape political sentiment.

The group predicted robust GDP growth, with estimates ranging from Friedberg’s 4.6% to Palihapitiya’s 5% to 6.2% ceiling. Calacanis initially wavered between JD Vance and “The Mamdani Moment” (referring to young Democratic socialists like NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani) before settling on the latter, believing Trump’s neglect of working-class concerns inadvertently created space for the socialist ascendancy.

Political losers emerged with equal clarity. Sacks identified Democratic centrists, arguing that socialist ideology now dominates the Democratic base, forcing even moderates leftward through primary challenges. Palihapitiya declared the Monroe Doctrine obsolete, asserting that Trump’s foreign policy philosophy—hemispheric dominance, transactional relationships, and proactive intervention against drug cartels and immigration—supersedes the old paradigm. Friedberg predicted the tech industry would become a scapegoat across both political tribes, with 2026 midterm elections functioning as a referendum on Big Tech’s influence and conduct.

Bridging Tech and Populism

As the conversation concluded, tensions emerged around the tech industry’s political alignment. Friedberg warned that the tech sector faces populist backlash from left and right alike, noting that some Republican senators he recently met expressed deep distrust of tech companies and their leaders. Sacks countered that MAGA represents a natural ally for tech, since both value property rights and innovation. He lamented that tech companies erred by funding left-wing causes and practicing censorship under Biden-era pressure, suggesting “truth and reconciliation” sessions with conservatives were now essential. Calacanis agreed that Democratic centrists would lose most, reinforcing the broader theme that 2026 will be a year of rapid political and economic realignment.

The All-In Podcast episode underscores a consensus among influential venture capitalists: the 2026 outlook hinges on commodity cycles, geopolitical shifts, AI’s net job impact, and a political landscape far more fragmented and volatile than the recent past. Jason Calacanis and his peers are positioning their portfolios for copper upswings, crypto innovation, and the structural decline of oil and traditional media—while bracing for political upheaval that will reshape capital allocation and talent flows for years to come.