The Turmoil of the Cryptocurrency Market in 2025: Has the $200,000 Bitcoin Target Been Achieved?

2025 was a transformative year for the cryptocurrency industry. From policy shifts following President Trump’s inauguration in January, to the rapid entry of institutional investors, and even a rush of new listings, the entire market experienced significant structural changes. While Bitcoin showed a record-breaking rise from early to mid-2025, Ethereum’s relative stagnation became more apparent, indicating a clear shift in market leadership within the crypto space.

Market Shift Driven by Trump Administration and Regulatory Environment Changes

Since President Trump’s re-election in January 2025, U.S. cryptocurrency policy underwent a fundamental transformation. Several lawsuits against crypto companies that had been initiated under the Biden administration were withdrawn one after another, and the passage of the GENIUS Act marked the first comprehensive cryptocurrency-related legislation in the United States. These developments symbolize a policy shift that positions cryptocurrencies at the core of national asset allocation strategies, rather than mere policy improvements.

Along with these policy changes, Bitcoin rapidly emerged as an asset class favored by institutional investors. Notably, in May, Bitcoin hit a record high of approximately $112,000, and by July 3rd, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached about $14.4 billion, accelerating institutional participation.

Meanwhile, the current Bitcoin price is around $89,000 (as of January 28, 2026), revealing that some of the early optimistic forecasts have not been fully realized.

Rapid Adoption of Bitcoin Reserve System and Corporate Strategy Shifts

Since President Trump signed an executive order in March establishing a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, corporate strategies incorporating Bitcoin reserves have accelerated dramatically.

MicroStrategy (formerly Strategy), led by Michael Saylor, has long been a pioneer in this reserve strategy. In 2025, new entrants such as Metaplanet and Twenty One also entered the market. Additionally, Coinbase and Universal Digital Inc. announced reserve plans, and the SEC approved a $2.3 billion transaction by Trump Media and Technology Group, signaling institutional approval of this movement.

The co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin Reserve solution provider Castle, Steven Cole, highlighted this trend: “Major economies around the world are seeing Bitcoin treasury companies emerge, and the decision to purchase Bitcoin is rapidly shifting from ‘if’ to ‘when’ for all companies, regardless of size,” indicating a significant corporate mindset shift throughout 2025.

Saylor also analyzed that Bitcoin Reserve has enormous growth potential, with its speed depending on securities issuance capacity and Bitcoin purchasing ability. Multiple large tech companies are expected to intensify their Bitcoin purchase strategies by the end of the year.

Altcoin Differentiation Race and Regulatory Environment Relaxation

While Bitcoin-centric activity accelerates, the altcoin market is also showing its own developmental trajectory. David Ravant, head of research at FalconX, pointed out that “altcoins with strong and unique fundamental value propositions will continue to perform steadily.” Despite easier access to Bitcoin, demand for altcoins offering different use cases remains strong.

Notably, regulatory changes such as the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act and a more tolerant supervisory stance toward DeFi experiments are gaining attention. Throughout 2025, regulatory shifts are likely to promote new market trends.

Accelerated Cryptocurrency ETF and IPO Boom

2025 saw rapid development of infrastructure for institutional investors. The SEC strengthened its friendly stance toward cryptocurrencies under the Trump administration, and more ETFs are expected to be approved by year-end. According to James Seifert, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, “Most of the 19b-4 filings are expected to be approved by the end of the year, including spot redemption, collateralized ETFs, and about 10 single-asset ETFs.”

Simultaneously, a boom in crypto company IPOs became evident. Since early 2025, several crypto firms have gone public, with Circle performing exceptionally well—its stock price surged 475% within less than a month after listing. Gemini is also pursuing an IPO, and reports suggest OKX is considering going public. This acceleration in IPO activity throughout 2025 has become a key indicator of the industry’s institutional maturity.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Trends and Expert Predictions

Many analysts held optimistic views on the price outlook for late 2025. Anonymous Bitcoin analyst Stockmoney Lizards pointed out that “Bitcoin is attempting to break out of its multi-year trading range,” predicting it could surpass $200,000 by the end of the year. Both Bitwise Asset Management and Standard Chartered Bank also set similar $200,000 targets.

However, actual developments followed a more cautious trajectory. After reaching a peak of about $112,000 in May 2025, Bitcoin experienced a correction, and as of January 28, 2026, it trades around $89,000 (+0.45% over 24 hours). The $200,000 target was not achieved, which can be interpreted as a sign of market maturation and high volatility.

Ethereum faces even greater uncertainty. While its market cap declined by about 12% in the first half of 2025, the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs has created room for institutional capital allocation. Ravant noted that “many institutional investors have yet to allocate sufficient funds to Ethereum,” suggesting there is still significant room for growth. Currently, Ethereum trades around $3,000 (+1.94% over 24 hours), and discussions are ongoing about a potential rebound from its relative weakness throughout 2025.

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 was shaped by three major variables: a fundamental policy environment shift, structural changes in corporate strategies, and the rapid entry of institutional investors. These developments carry implications beyond short-term price fluctuations, indicating long-term maturation and transformation of the entire crypto industry and market structure.