What is the bottom of this round of Bitcoin bear market?

Last year, Bitcoin peaked at 126,000, and this year it has already entered a bear market. If you still insist that this is a bull market, a super cycle, then there's no need to read further.
There are only two core questions in a bear market: where will BTC price fall to? When will the bottom be reached?
The first approach is to look at the "decreasing law" of historical bear market declines. In each Bitcoin bear market, the maximum decline gets smaller, gradually converging overall, rather than repeatedly dropping 70%+.
The top structure of this cycle is actually very similar to 2021, both starting with a rapid drop followed by sideways movement at low levels. The difference is that this time, the initial decline was significantly smaller.
In 2021, the first drop was 50%, followed by another, ultimately reaching 75%.
This cycle, from 126,000 down to 80,000, is only about 36%.
If this is just the "halfway" point, then the full bear market would consist of two declines of about 36%, totaling nearly 60%. Calculated this way, the price would be around 50,000.
The second approach is to compare with the shutdown price. Currently, the mainstream Ant S21's shutdown cost is also around 50,000. Historically, this has always been an important reference zone at the end of a bear market.
Two completely different perspectives yield results that are highly close, so the conclusion is quite clear: the end of this bear market is most likely around 50,000 USD, with a time window around 2026.
We are still in the middle of the bear market, with some time left before reaching the true bottom. That moment is probably less than a year away. #内容挖矿焕新公测开启 $BTC