#美联储主席人选预测 Based on all current official news and prediction market trends, the next Federal Reserve Chair "pick in mind" by Trump is most likely BlackRock's Rick Rieder — his win rate in the latest polls has soared to 50%, far surpassing the other three candidates.

Why Rick Rieder?
"Very impressive" interview evaluation
• After meeting with Rieder, Trump publicly praised him as "very outstanding" and hinted that the candidate selection is almost finalized, causing Rieder's probability on Polymarket to jump from 3% to 50% in 10 days.
• Fox Business reported that Rieder is the "only candidate the President called 'very impressive'." Prediction markets are "raging."
• The Financial Times pointed out that Rieder's nomination has "surged from 6% to 34%"; the Kalshi platform also nearly doubled to 33%.
• In comparison, Kevin Warsh dropped from 45% to 41%, while Kevin Hassett remains at only 6%.
Policy alignment
• Rieder manages BlackRock's fixed income business with assets totaling up to $3 trillion. The market generally believes he "understands the market and is down-to-earth," and his appointment could ease recent public conflicts between Trump and the Federal Reserve.
• He is not from a traditional "ivory tower" background but is a "market mechanic" — which aligns highly with Trump's preference for "practical doers, not bookworms."