Three major drivers will shape US economic performance heading into 2026—and they matter for everyone watching markets.

First up: how hard the Trump administration actually pushes on tariffs and immigration. These aren't just political talking points anymore; they hit business costs and labor dynamics directly.

Then there's AI. The real question isn't whether companies talk about AI—they all do. It's whether they can actually build it into operations fast enough to move the needle on productivity.

Finally, don't sleep on the Fed and Congress. How much support they're willing to inject into the system will heavily influence whether we see sustained growth or headwinds. Monetary and fiscal policy coordination (or lack thereof) could swing outcomes significantly.