Over the past three days (January 19-21), ETH has been mainly impacted by macro risks and leverage liquidations, with technical weakness, divergence between on-chain and institutional signals, and an overall oscillating downward trend. On January 21, it briefly fell below $3,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 7%.

1. Daily Key News and Impact
• January 19 (Saturday): Macro environment, tensions in US-EU trade escalate, Trump’s tariff threats increase risk aversion; technical analysis, ETH lost the $3,230 support, daily chart broke below EMA20, Supertrend turned bearish, RSI neutral to weak, MACD green bars lengthened; on-chain, 7-day moving average trading volume nearly 2.5 million transactions hit a new high, Gas fees around $0.15 at low levels, staking volume about 36 million ETH set a record. Impact: Price pressured downward, market sentiment cautious, high leverage liquidation risks rising.
• January 20 (Sunday): Macro environment, geopolitical and policy concerns persist, funds prefer conservative positions; on-chain, MakinaFi was hacked, losing 1,299 ETH (about $4.13 million), addresses may have been poisoned or transactions artificially inflated; institutional side, Trend Research borrowed 10 million USDT, suspected of increasing ETH holdings, FG Nexus sold 2,500 ETH adding selling pressure. Impact: Hacker incident dampens confidence, institutional long-short disagreements, price fluctuates weakly.
• January 21 (Monday): Macro environment, Greenland geopolitical dispute + Japanese debt storm trigger “sell US” trades, US stocks/bonds/dollar all decline, funds flow into gold; market, ETH dropped below $3,000 to $2,908, with a 24-hour liquidation of $393 million, mostly long positions; institutional side, Galaxy plans to launch a $100 million hedge fund, capable of two-way trading. Impact: Panic selling, decline exceeds BTC, short-term support levels severely tested.
2. Key Influencing Factors Overview
1. Macro and Geopolitical: Trade friction + geopolitical conflicts + bond market volatility, risk appetite sharply drops, ETH declines with higher sensitivity than BTC.
2. Technical and Capital: Key moving averages broken, indicators turn bearish, leverage liquidations increase selling pressure, long positions mostly liquidated.
3. On-chain and Institutions: On-chain activity high but suspected of inflation, staking demand strong; institutional long-short disagreements, short-term bearish but long-term positioning ongoing.
4. Regulation and Sentiment: Regulatory uncertainty persists, market panic intensifies, safe-haven assets favored.
3. Trading Strategy Recommendations
• Short-term (1-3 days): Strict position control (≤30%), monitor support at $2,900-$3,000, break below watch $2,800-$2,850; rebound at $3,050-$3,100 face resistance, consider light short positions, stop-loss above $3,150; prioritize spot trading, leverage on contracts ≤5x, set stop-loss.
• Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Focus on the FOMC meeting on January 27-28, watch for dovish signals or risk appetite boost; buy core assets on dips, mainly dollar-cost averaging, avoid chasing highs; continuously monitor staking data and institutional fund flows, beware of new regulatory developments.
• Risk Warning: Macro volatility, leverage liquidations, hacking attacks, regulatory changes may intensify ETH fluctuations, ensure proper risk management.
$ETH