New Bitcoin Whales Outpace Old Guard in $6B Supply Tug-of-War

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: New Bitcoin Whales Outpace Old Guard in $6B Supply Tug-of-War Original Link: Bitcoin’s large holder composition is undergoing a fundamental shift as demand from deep-pocketed new entrants promises to reshape power dynamics.

The new whale cohort, including corporations like MicroStrategy and Twenty One Capital, isn’t composed of early adopters, but of institutional investors whose collective actions are creating unprecedented market pressure.

“We do not want the market to think and price us just as a treasury asset. That is not us at all. We are going to acquire as much Bitcoin as we possibly can,” Twenty One Capital CEO Jack Mallers said in an interview with CNBC in December.

Data confirms the significant scale of these new buyers, with Twenty One Capital holding 43,514 BTC worth $3.91 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries, making it the third-largest corporate holder.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products have amassed $116.59 billion worth of Bitcoin, representing 6.5% of its $1.8 trillion market capitalization, reflecting the unprecedented scale of capital deployment these investors have.

By one key metric, the newcomers have already overtaken the old guard. Investors holding over 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days, categorized as “new whales,” now control $130 billion worth of Bitcoin, outpacing “old whales” at $126 billion, according to CryptoQuant.

While demand is massive, the new cohort’s average cost basis is near $98,000. With Bitcoin trading around $90,000, these holdings carry roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses concentrated among those large, new investors.

Tug-of-war

Strategic accumulators like MicroStrategy see dips as buying opportunities. Yet, the sheer size of these underwater positions means other whales within the same cohort may become pressured sellers, creating distribution against bullish convictions.

“The market is currently in a brutal period of chip exchange and confidence testing,” Allen Ding, head of research at Bitfire, told Decrypt. “This is not just a game of long versus short, but an intergenerational transfer of chips with liquidity migrating from ‘weak new whales’ or speculators and ‘profit-taking old whales’ into the hands of ‘strong new whales’ or strategic institutions.”

Their presence is altering market structure, resulting in the ongoing crypto market chop, according to Ding. “This type of capital belongs to a ‘pure long-only’ allocation strategy and typically avoids short-term stop-loss mechanisms, exhibiting a natural price insensitivity even amid market fluctuations,” the analyst explained.

The market now has “unprecedented psychological anchors and liquidity resilience” due to these “price-insensitive” long-term buyers, he added, noting that until this absorption and supply digestion of the redistributed supply is complete, Bitcoin will continue to range.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have also contributed to the market’s sideways trend. However, recent geopolitical developments provided some much-needed relief.

Bitcoin surged nearly 3% from $87,653 to an intraday high of $90,240 in the late New York trading session, according to CoinGecko, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations.

Still, the fundamental tug-of-war within the new whale cohort remains the dominant market force.